Thursday Morning 8:00 AM February 4 2010 Comment for Feb 3 Close: T Theory Forecast remains bullish for the longer term based on the long term AD T #13 but the S&P broke down below the mid-channel support noted in the chart and this is negative. Also an Arms Sell Warning should insure the S&P will fall to the lower green envelope currently around S&P 1048 over the next week or two. See the Feb 2 Post below for Arms discussion.
So a new "hard" decline is now likely that will not end until new lows are seen near the green channel envelope. That oversold condition needs to produce a solid buy for the run up to May. Mostly we will need to see a string of big numbers on the Arms like we saw yesterday.
Later I will introduce alternate constructions for the Short Range T # 3, but for today I will just continue with the next small T shown in red with the volume oscillator plot. In the days ahead we need to see a new cash build phase under the green line that can become the left side of a new small T. There is no way to project the next low via T Theory but there is evidence it could be messy and it is possible the AD Line will go back towards the early November low. That is an extreme case but the short term picture does call for risk reduction in the event of a worst case.
Now that I archive these daily posts I will start answering technical questions here and adding in a few mini-tutorials. For the next few weeks these topics fall into the category of controlling market risk with T Theory concepts.
Terry
So if you've got a bit of time in the mornings, you'll wane to keep an eye on Terry's updates. His update for today should be posted by 8:00 am Eastern Time. His updates include his chart. If you don't understand T Theory, just keep reading his stuff, you'll pick up at least enough to understanding what he's pointing to.
Of course right now, it's also a reason that I'm on guard for a more serious low and bounce if we see SPX 1048 today or Monday. Remember, this method can't directly line up with Tony Caldaro's Elliott Wave projections. Sometimes - but right now, Tony's methods point to a C wave down to retest SPX 667, and I'm not at all certain that fits with Terry's projections for where a low into perhaps early or mid-March might go. So I recommend remaining on guard fow how this will play out in price and time for the drop.
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