Goldman Sachs moderated their dollar-yen target - maybe this is why

Recently I noticed a headline about Goldman Sachs moderating their dollar-yen target from 98 to 92. Since that represents only a partial retrace, I was kinda glad to note that target fits better with the yen continuation upward that I'm still expecting (and I believe Tony Caldaro still expects). I chart it typically as $XJY at Stockcharts.com, sometimes as FXY since this ETF tracks very closely (and when I want to see volumes). It moves inversely to the widely quoted dollar-yen pair, so as dollar-yen has moved up closer to 92, the $XJY has dropped again. It's true that $XJY has dropped to the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart (below), aided by the dollar index' strong up-move overall. But a deep retrace to the prior swing low of 106.83 is still okay, because it looks like it's correcting a leading diagonal up from that prior low. In Elliott Wave terms, it means a deep retrace is common from a diagonal. It could go as far as a double bottom about 107; but it just cannot poke lower than that prior low (106.83). Otherwise the Elliott Wave count would have to change.

On the big picture - see monthly chart below - $XJY is on track to push new highs from a multi-year consolidation. So long as it gets support - either here, the 200-day moving average just above 108, or just above that prior swing low - then it should regain the 111.49 long-term Fibonacci level yet again, and pivot on up to new highs. While my personal EW view of the monthly chart is different from Tony Caldaro's, mine would actually support a higher ultimate target. Still - I do have a bearish alternative if the $XJY cannot regain 111.49. I continue to accumulate on pullbacks (but will bail out / stop out if the prior swing low of 106.83 is violated).