Last weekend, Raymond Merriman spoke in his public weekly comments about the markets likely to make a quick correction in their short-term trend - or just collapsing. We got the first of those. Though on Thursday it started to feel like both! After today's sharp movements in both directions, it's time to start reflecting on the probable paths of the markets from here. As usual, we open it up with the reflective and preview comments Ray Merriman provides for the upcoming week. This isn't the same as his specific market subscription services - those are available as you can learn from his Merriman Market Analysis site (always in the list at right). Let's see what he's saying in his comments this time:
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MMA Weekly Comments for the Week beginning February 8, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman
Note: My apologies for the delay in this week’s column. I left Friday morning for vacation in Marco Island, Florida. The plane was delayed two hours due to storms. By the time I got to the island, the storm had knocked out all the internet connections. I hope I can get this column out by Saturday now, as it is late Friday night and still no internet. The island is dark.
- Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
The highs of January 11-19 in world equity markets are holding. These highs were nearby to the stations of Saturn (January 13) and Mercury (January 15), which was the basis for our critical reversal date of January 14, +/- 3 days. After attempting a rally from the lows associated with Saturn square Pluto on January 31, the markets sold off sharply again last Thursday. Many markets made new multi-week lows on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, fell below 10,000, to 9835 intraday, its lowest level since this primary cycle began in the first week of November. It recovered to close back slightly above 10,000.
The sell-off was noted in many commodities as well. Gold, for instance, fell from a high of 1128 on Wednesday to 1044 intraday on Friday. Silver fared even worse, falling from 1695 on Wednesday to 1465 on Friday. Crude Oil also tumbled, plunging from 79.66 to 70.75 in the June contract, from Wednesday to Friday.
The culprit was exactly what we have been highlighting in the last several columns: debt. But it is not just debt in the United States anymore. It is debt in Europe, and specifically the countries that make up the European Union. Consequently, the Euro currency is plummeting sharply against other currencies. Against the US Dollar, for instance, the Euro currency has now plunged from a recent high of 1.5110 in early December, to under 1.3600 on Friday. That is one of the major reasons why Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil have fallen, for their prices are denominated in the U.S. Dollar, which is rising sharply as forecasted in our recent Forecast speeches, as well as in the Forecast 2010 book.
In short, the world is awash in debt. The debt ratings of countries all around the world are vulnerable to being downgraded further. And now the same is true of the United States as a result of its continually mushrooming debt. It is all related to Pluto in Capricorn, the midpoint of the Saturn-Uranus opposition and the focal point of the evolving Cardinal Climax of 2008-2015. It peaks, from an astrological point, in mid-2010. But the damaging consequences of this debt explosion will be felt for the next 2-5 years, and probably throughout the entire decade, unless politicians around the world can honor their campaign promises and break their addiction to out-of-control spending they – we - cannot pay. But that is not likely to happen, for in the last 20 years or more, politicians have learned one lesson every well: winning elections is not about how well you can govern, but how well you campaign. What they may not have realized however, is that voters are discovering this too. And with Uranus approaching a square to Pluto-in-Capricorn, a populist revolt against politicians, bankers, and big businesses is already underway. It can only be stopped by the positive potentials of Pluto in Capricorn: honesty, truthfulness, and ethical behavior. In other words, honor your campaign promises. Sacrifices will be necessary to get back to a foundation of core values and common sense practices.
Short-Term Geocosmics
This last week was typical of the principles of Saturn square Pluto, which began the week on Sunday, January 31. The attention of the world was on the destructive nature of debt. Credit agencies downgraded nations. The specter of higher taxes spooked the market with the realization that companies are not hiring new employees yet, despite the fact that the business cycle is ready to turn up. It won’t – can’t – improve dramatically until businesses know what their taxes will be, if they can afford them and still hire new people. Based on the President’s budget proposal given this week, it doesn’t look good – not just for this year, but for all years of this new decade. The President’s promise to put a freeze on new spending was qualified to not begin until 2012, and well after more record-breaking budget deficits first. By then it may very well be too late to recover. And so the market sold off as credit agencies threatened to downgrade to U.S.A. credit rating, for who is going to loan it money if its budget projections show it will spend over $1 trillion+ per year more than it brings in? At some point, the debt will explode too far, and then there is danger of default. Who wants to loan money to an entity that is on the path to defaulting on its loans? Not China. Not anyone.
Nevertheless, the geocosmic picture of this month is not so ugly. Venus will first conjunct Neptune on Monday, and then Jupiter on February 16. This is known as a “translation” of Venus to the separating Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. Obama and the White House may experience something of a “comeback,” for it was the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction last year that supported the world’s belief in his powerful aura, or “magic.” But it has worn off sharply since its last passage on December 21, according to many polls. Yet, the translation of first Venus, and then the Sun (February 14-28) to Jupiter and Neptune can indicate a temporary recovery of that charisma and magic. Under these themes of optimism and hope, stock markets can rally. If not, the downside of these same signatures can be hysteria and panic. But it is March 9-21 that we want to focus the greater attention on in the near future. There will be nine important geocosmic signatures taking place then.
Longer-Term Thoughts
We are now more than halfway through the Mars retrograde cycle (December 20-March 10). The commodity and currency markets that bottomed at the time of the retrograde (Gold, Silver, Euro currency), have now broken down below those lows of December 22 after a rather impressive 2-3 week rally. The idea now is that they may continue lower until the Mars retrograde cycle ends.
In the study of astrology, Mars retrograde pertains to the idea that new efforts begun around the time of the retrograde date may have to be aborted before it resumes its direct motion. We have already noted this phenomenon at work in the United States Congress, where the Senate passed its much anticipated Health Care Reform proposal right before breaking for the Christmas holiday season, or, right around the time that Mars turned retrograde. This was not a favorable geocosmic time to pass such a proposal, or any new effort that you wish to be accepted. Our comments at the time suggested that this proposal would not pass the entire process necessary to become law without some major revisions. This analysis was based solely on Mars retrograde. One month afterwards, the state of Massachusetts shocked the country when it elected Republican Scott Brown to the seat that held been held by Democrat Edward Kennedy for several decades. With that upset, the Health Care Reform proposal of the Senate was dead, for Democrats lost a filibuster-proof majority.
Yet the idea of universal health care reform will not die as quickly as many Republicans may hope. After all, Uranus is still in Pisces back and forth through much of 2011. And Jupiter is now in Pisces, which rules this kind of reform movement.
Mars retrograde may have portended the collapse of the Senate’s proposal. But my guess is that even this month, it could be resurrected again, in a new form. And that really is the nature of Mars retrograde. It doesn’t always kill the effort. It just means it has to be done over again, with considerable modifications. The public is still plenty angry at health insurance companies. And with Pluto in Capricorn, these companies will still be held accountable for their opportunistic behavior at the expense of common people. Both the population and government will force them to make significant changes that are more in line with the mood and needs of the public. The public wants reform in this area, and I believe they will still get it this year. It’s not dead. It is just in the process of being resurrected in another form after Mars goes direct.
Announcements
Our next private meeting for MMA subscribers will take place at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Cambridge (Boston) Massachusetts, on March 1 at 11:00 AM. There is no cost for yearly subscribers of MMA or SOS reports, or for any subscribers of our daily or weekly reports. For all others, the cost is $295.00. This special meeting will last about 2-1/2 hours. It will follow the NCGR conference on “Planetary Revolution: Geocosmic Alchemy II”, taking place February 25-28. Attendance is limited to about 15 persons, and reservations are suggested. There is nothing as exciting and informative as a gathering with MMA subscribers (to me), because they come from very interesting walks of life, from the fields of finance, banking, government, military, intelligence agencies, academia, psychology, internet technology, and astrology. During this special gathering, subscribers may ask any questions they wish, or they may make any statements that the group may then discuss. Great trading ideas tend to arise from this format. Please contact us at 1-248-626-3034, or email us at ordersmma@msn.com if you would like to be a part of this special meeting, as seating is limited. For information on what these meetings are like, read a review of my winter tour of Europe, where I met several subscribers at two separate meetings, in Amsterdam and Zurich.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”
The February issue of the SOS Global Stock Market Cycles Report went out last week. If you subscribe to this report and did not get it, call our offices at once. This report covers the long-term as well as intermediate and short-term outlook for the USA stock market (DJIA and NASDAQ Composite). It then covers the intermediate and shorter-outlook for the XAU Gold and Silver mining index, the German DAX, Netherlands AEX, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, and Australia’s All Ordinaries. This is our only subscription report that gives detailed discussion on geocosmic variables that are forthcoming. For subscription information, please go to SERVICES at www.mmacycles.com.
CD’S, MP3’s, DVD’S, and webcast viewing of the Forecast 2010 speech will be available in about a week. The Forecast 2010 Webcast Speech took place December 20, 2009. We are offering a CD or MP3 download that contains the audio only. You can also view the webcast again in it’s entirety as a one-time download from Vibation until January 25, 2010. And it will be available in a DVD edited edition too. The cost for any of these recordings will be $45.00 and an additional postage charge if ordering in audio CD or edited DVD format. For further information, go to our website at www.mmacycles.com (it will be up sometime this week). Or drop us an email (ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034. “Thank You - it’s very thoughtful and thanks you for sharing your knowledge. A whole new world opened for me.” Attendee to the Forecast 2010 webcast.
The Forecast 2010 book are out!!! For more information, visit our web site at www.mmacycles.com. “Kudos… the 2010 forecasts – you’ve outdone yourself - I see Jupiter is playing a role not anticipated (if I recall correctly) last year .... it all clicks.” RR, Santa Fe
The MMA Catalogue of products and services for 2010 is now out!!! You can download it in PDF at http://www.mmacycles.com/option,com_docman/task,doc_download/gid,161/Itemid,63/. The ordering page is the last page of the catalogue. This is especially useful for those outside of the USA, since we do not send these by snail mail unless requested.
MMA is currently preparing a listing of astrology books on its web site for readers to consider in their education of this wonderful subject. More will be announced on this shortly.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2010; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
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