Let gold prove above $1162 to be sure it's pushing higher again

Gold clearly needs above $1162 to help confirm a bullish view. (Note - I see that Tony Caldaro points out that $1150 should be high enough to give a good advance signal it's heading up again.). Conversely a move under $1074 should be more bearish. I also posted about the $HUI at my UBTNB3 blog. I still think we won't see a confirmation whether or not gold is heading higher next, unless we do that move over that significant swing high. I'm not seeing positive divergence yet. So for now gold needs to show it clearly can get above resistance. Otherwise that 200 dma may be called upon; or lower if it fails the 200-day MA.

The lower scenarios could either be that it's making a wave 2 pullback if the $1200+ was a large wave 1 up from $681. Or that the $1200+ high was a large B wave up from $681 as a wave A, with wave C to retest that $681 low. While I'm long-term very bullish on gold, my Elliott Wave read of it plus my understanding of its cycles from other cycles analysts is that gold may very well have more weakness over the next couple of months, before its next great buy entry.

So it remains possible that equities surprise with another bout of strength from March into May and/or August, with gold doing roughly the opposite. Then equities doing their bigger drop with gold doing its higher rise. Actually, even Terry Laundry mentioned these timing ideas about gold in some of his recent commentaries at his T Theory website (though my other cycles source needs to be confidential for purposes of this post). Therefore, these other cycles-based ideas reinforce my Elliott Wave interpretation that gold may not be ready for its next bull run - yet.