Natural gas correction reaching for support at 200-dma - or maybe $4.30-ish

Natural gas has fallen under $5 again for its current cyclic pullback. You can see on the $NatGas daily chart (below) that it's close to the 200-day moving average (dma). But assuming it's in a B -wave correction, it could test lower, such as the 50% pullback level which would be approximately $4.30-ish area. UNG is similarly testing down for a support level. This ETF doesn't track exactly to $NatGas but the timing relates well. I don't expect $NatGas to make a new low, but who knows if UNG might.

Once they find their low, it should be another great swing buy point for either/both. The previous buy points popped well and crested soon before these deep pullbacks. We might think that the next swing up can be more persistent. The next upslope won't necessarily mirror the last two but if we're in for a longer timeframe it should be fine. Right now, it's a matter of looking for time and price of this upcoming low. On the UNG chart, it has the look of a wide downtrend channel where a low that would touch the lower channel line would be a new low; but there are times when such a low may truncate so we can't assume that.

Since the next low in $NatGas may need a retrace like 50%, to that area approximately $4.30-ish, don't be discouraged if it ducks under the 200-dma. I'm not guaranteeing that will happen! It may indeed rebound from that key moving average, so traders shouldn't be deterred from giving that a try. Just sayin' that if the 200-dma doesn't do the trick, let it have a bit of room and then wade in again. Either way, natural gas should be getting near to its next trough and reversal area.