Sunday, February 21, 2010

Oil testing symmetry target - follow it out of this level

Oil has tested up to a symmetry level and the likely approach is to follow it from here. Because it may continue up in a trend, or reverse to change trend. There are cycles I need to investigate which warn a possible retest of the 2009 lows se we can't be complacent that it'll remain over $70. We've used the $70 level before and it should be viewed as important to hold still. Another move under $70 would most likely cause it to lose that support.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, I'm wondering if it's currently in a wave 5 of C shallow diagonal that will resolve quickly with on the upside and might even poke a new high. I grant the pattern can be viewed differently. The real test is whether oil puts in a trend change pattern. The action over the next several days should help to assess it. The risk will be that pushing a new high will look like a breakout. But could turn into a fake out. So if trading it this week, consider using good stop protection and stop out on a loss (stopping out will be better than if oil turns bearish). I'll revisit this with an update next weekend or maybe sooner.

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