Recent swing lows are "canaries in coal mine" for most commodities

Commodities' advance over the past year took place in a series of somewhat choppy waves. Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave labeling (from his public charts - see his OEW site in list at right) shows that he's considering a generally bullish outlook with series of first and second waves. For this to hold up, each wave must have a higher trough than the previous - i.e., higher lows. At some point commodities should kick into gear with a big wave 3 advance. The "canaries in the coal mine" to watch out for, are those prior swing low levels.

For illustration below are Tony's crude oil chart of $WTIC, and a chart I pulled from Stockcharts showing the ETF covering many commodities, DBC. I also placed Tony's chart of the Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) on top. Figuring the $BDI is also a way to chart for commodities' performance. And speaking of coal, I've added a chart of KOL, the ETF tracking coal! I'm warning that there are some cycles views predicting weakness ahead into March for many commodities, rather than higher highs. If that cycles warning is wrong, then commodities will remain above their prior swing highs. So keep an eye on any commodities you may be trading. Because the difference between higher highs, and lower lows, will be huge once commodities make a trending move out of the relatively channeled "range" they've been traveling in for the past several months.