Saturday, February 13, 2010

Talented technical analysts on the web review the S&P 500 and find near-term positive signs

Each weekend we like to keep up with other market analysts. This weekend isn't any different! I'll start with a couple - and I'm already adding more later today, and tomorrow. Since it's a very busy weekend (Valentine's Day - hmmmm .....!)!

One I like to start with is Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations: Terry Laundry's Weekly T Theory Observations, at http://www.ttheory.com/:
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Observations for Sunday Feb 14 2010 Today's topics will include update to the Long Term Advance-Decline Ts picture; Lessons from the Long Range Ts 1966 to 2009, and about the new site format.

Charts for this discussion: Daily chart below of the NYAD Line with A-D T #13. The PDF equivalent chart can be downloaded here: Download ADT1320100212

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A chart of the full series of the thirteen AD Ts from 1966 and other notes, including Gold and the Armstrong 8 year cycle below. The clearer PDF picture can be seen here: Download LongRangeADTs

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Audio Commentary for these charts, etc to come on Sunday.


And there are some others to check out:

Safe Haven | Here is Where You Need to Pay Careful Attention - By Marty Chenard (2/12), at http://www.safehaven.com/article-15790.htm
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Bottom Line: We are at an important testing and pivot point for the market ... the second most important point since last April.

Here is where investors need to pay close attention to what happens to the Institutional Index of "core holdings" held by Institutional Investors. (Institutional Investors are responsible for over 50% of the volume on any given day ....



FT.com / Comment / Opinion - A Greek crisis is coming to America - By Niall Ferguson 2/10, at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f90bca10-1679-11df-bf44-00144feab49a.html
Here's the introduction; click above to read his whole article:
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A Greek crisis is coming to America

By Niall Ferguson

Published: February 10 2010 20:15 | Last updated: February 10 2010 20:15

Pinn illustration

It began in Athens. It is spreading to Lisbonand Madrid. But it would be a grave mistake to assume that the sovereign debt crisis that is unfolding will remain confined to the weaker eurozone economies. For this is more than just a Mediterranean problem with afarmyard acronym. It is a fiscal crisis of the western world. Its ramifications are far more profound than most investors currently appreciate.


The U.S.: Land of the Free and Home of a Nearly Failed Treasury Auction of Its Own -- Seeking Alpha - By "OmniSans" at http://seekingalpha.com/article/188380-the-u-s-land-of-the-free-and-home-of-a-nearly-failed-treasury-auction-of-its-own.

Friday Preview: China Puts First Pin in the Bubble -- Seeking Alpha - by Phil Davis (2/12), at http://seekingalpha.com/article/188331-friday-preview-china-puts-first-pin-in-the-bubble. Another example of how he comments on trading options including short-term. Below is the quote of his intro:

Thank you China!

I had put out a post last nightdetailing how we ended up short at yesterday's close and at 3:21, when I published it as I was checking the Asian markets (don't ask, I keep strange hours) it looked like I had called it wrong as the Hang Seng went into lunch up over half a point and commodities were still hanging tough after yesterday's ridiculous run up. In fact, at 12:07, in Member Chat, I just so happened to say: "Copper $3.13 - ridiculous… Very annoying movement, not very playable like this as it can all crash back down again very fast."



Schaeffer's Monday Morning Outlook: Dow Tests 10,000; Overseas Fallout Could Make for Choppy Week Ahead. Here's their intro paragraph:
Global economic worries and concerns about how the Federal Reserve will unwind its massive stimulus programs made for a volatile week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closing below 10,000 on Monday. Still, by Friday, the DJIA recovered that landmark and managed a weekly gain for the first week in five. Looking ahead to next week, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, notes that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is trading above its rising 160-day moving average, but below its declining 80-day trendline. Todd thinks this might indicate a short-term trading range. Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White examines the Rydex Nova/Ursa ratio, which compares the amount of assets in two Rydex mutual funds. Nova is a bullish fund and the Ursa is a bearish fund. A high ratio indicates optimism, while a low ration signals pessimism. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

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