Monday, March 8, 2010

Like oil for gold? Oil pushing new highs while gold languishes

Curious that oil has been pushing up to the point where it's very close to making a new high. While gold has made a couple of lower highs. My general view of oil is that it can retest its low, whether or not it gets to a higher (50% perhaps) Fibonacci retrace to its peak high. Gold - we want to buy a significant low this month or next month. If buying gold, and nimble, one can stop out if it heads below its recent range and then make another entry. Conversely, hold on (or buy more) if it starts making higher highs - once it gets underway over the next month or so, it should be a keeper for a long time.

The same approach may not work for oil - that's more dicey, since it doesn't have the same status as gold does, to counterbalance currencies' devaluations. Many fundamental analysts project supply to exceed demand for a while. So frankly, even if it does head to perhaps $85 or $91, I'm going to look for the next trend reversal sell pattern on the hourly and daily charts of oil, to see if its next swing down will be deeper (falling under $70 again). That kind of pattern means starting to make lower lows with a pickup in selling volumes. Will see!

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