Luck o' the Irish brings green to markets - again (no surprise?)!

Wow, the markets closed green ... again (anyone surprised by now?!!) ... and just as well for the "luck o' the Irish" on St. Patrick's Day! No hard feelings about the comments, guys ;) it's just that I DO KNOW the frustration of a setup or chart analysis/tool that says one thing, and the market does another. When you take a look at the lineup of charts below, you will notice that the one I borrowed from Tony Caldaro's "Elliott Wave Lives On" site (thanks again Tony!) shows a very bullish count on the weekly chart. I know that "Trader Joe" up in the Carolinas has got to be happy about this one! I remember when Joe and I were trading thoughts about whether we could be in something like a wave V up, and if so would it turn into a huge ending diagonal. Well, I appreciate Tony's thoughts about the wave count, I really do. At the same time I plan to remain somewhat flexible in my thinking, with considerable respect also to the views of Andre Gratian which he's provided in his weekly updates shared here. And also Terry Laundry with his T Theory, who has stated he's basically bearish stocks once projected peaks complete in May and August this year.

So is there anything about SPX 1168 that may send the equity indices back from the heights reached today? It's more possible, in my humble opinion, now that one alternative count (mine - so take with a grain of salt!) is that we've finished 5 waves up on the hourly that can bring about the pullback we and so many have been looking for. I saw that even Terry Laundry in his update this morning remarked about different dates for this thing to top out, such as tomorrow (March 18) or Monday March 22. I've got a feeling about this 1168 level - will just have to see if this MARCH MADNESS has hit a crest and will roll over so we can get a short swing down to 1126/1127 at least (1100 if we're super lucky but let's not count on it). As I tweeted, I went short at the 1168 test which actually went to about 1169/1170 but that's okay with me, the market did not get support from 1168.

If I'm right about this then the move down this afternoon was an initial small 5-wave drop with a corrective pullback up, and more down to come tomorrow/Friday. If not, then I'll have to stop out at another move over 1168/1170 to see if the market will pole vault to 1176 or whatever Tony's next pivot is! And, of course, I know that Andre is making his own projections and calculations for his subscribers.

Take a look at the TRIN chart at bottom - the 10-day moving average (dma) is 0.88 which isn't below 0.80 but is rather low, and the move up in this indicator today might signal that it's ready to start moving up again along with stocks weakening. The VIX is another surprise frankly - I had doubted the VIX would make a lower low, but it poked a lower low intraday, so there. But it's still pressing on its lower Bollinger Band, so there isn't any reason for swing trade players not to look for VIX to lift up again with corresponding correction in the stock market.

I've also included my own weekly SPX chart that shows some negative divergence in the weekly McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO), despite the DMI-ADX showing strong trend that we're obviously seeing. And on the SPX daily, you can see that the StochRSI and MACD are not confirming a sell signal yet, so staking out a short from 1168 is clearly in the speculative camp (need to be nimble trader for this, and unafraid to stop out if the market shoots past 1168).

My iPhone battery died so I wasn't able to Tweet with it (my preferred method intraday!) after having remarked about my selling the 1168 level, so I also could not retweet other good stuff like the typical mrtopstep video "du jour" but I certainly hope all my readers had a happy market navigating type of day. And I certainly hope also that everyone has a great St. Patrick's Day type of evening! "See you" tomorrow!