Thursday, March 4, 2010

S&P 500 pushes toward possible high here or soon as indicators turn mixed

The SPX closed up out of what I guessed might be an intraday triangle, suggesting it may still want either 1129 (the .786 retrace) or the 1135 that some others like Andre Gratian and Marty Chenard have identified by trendline and projection work. While Terry Laundry at his http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html site is thinking perhaps an interim high Monday March 8, and caculating whether the expected May peak will top out May 20 or perhaps another (earlier?) date. Bears should be hoping for a small head-and-shoulders pattern to send price down, while bulls should be thinking of the 1129 and 1135 numbers.

The McClellan Oscillator looks like negative divergence after getting overbought, although the Summation Index has pushed over its own 50 dma. And the advance-decline chart shows once again, even after a pullback we should think in terms of higher market levels.

As for the Bradley turn date, either it didn't work or that's gotta be one of the worst imitations of a "major turn" i've seen - hey, maybe that's why I'm not a cycles expert! LOL! But I do know 1130 is price resistance, and Tony Caldaro is talking about his 1133 pivot in his OEW update tonight (see site/feed at right). Merriman fans can check what he's saying too, or just his comments last Friday.

Myself - it's a day by day thing, wondering of course if we won't get a better buying opportunity soon. I've just gotta think it's there and can believe we should get some turn down soon for a god pullback. So let's keep watching the dollar, which rose today as gold fell, and see if a surprise there will get something shaking.

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