Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Stock market can barely advance OR decline - what's an analyst to do?! LOL - watch these indicators

The action today felt more sideways drop and bounce than anything else, as the market's momentum has definitely slowed. Yet the market hasn't managed really to drop either. Where's it heading? Check out the S&P 500 hourly chart below, courtesy of Tony Caldaro (thanks again Tony!), from his public charts which you can always find by following his site links in the list and feed at the right side of the page here. Notice the StochRSI has shown declining peaks for some days now. Similarly the MACD shows the loss of momentum too. On the one hand, the market has worked off any overbought condition, but it certainly isn't oversold either. It can drop to the 89-hour moving average currently around 1164 without looking particularly bearish.

But from the perspectives of Elliott Wave, and perhaps from Terry Laundry's T Theory perspective if you're also following his T Theory website (also in the list at right), the market might have completed a large first wave up and be preparing to correct in a second wave pullback. Not really very bearish when you consider the idea that we want to be or become long at the point that a pullback completes and positions the market for a third wave up. That idea of a third wave up can be what takes us from the next good swing low, up to the highs we look forward to in late May (perhaps around May 20).

Sure, it would also have been nice to get a better pullback already. We'll just have to see if the additional correction we're expecting gets the S&P 500 index below potential support levels like 1146, 1152, and 1157. Given the market's underlying bullish tone, don't count on "bargain basement prices" - we will probably have to be nimble and then perhaps a bit aggressive to get in on the next really good swing buy. We've just got to keep an eye on these indicators to get any early read on when they are suggesting positive divergence on an oversold condition.


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