TLT still clinging but under support means US Treasury bonds prices still headed south

I've been covering US Treasury bonds and 10-year notes for a while, showing they're downtrending in price even though they weren't quite ready to make new lows recently. Maybe the recent bounce got many thinking that prices wouldn't drop, with rates pushing up. But on the charts it looks like a mere delay (whether you go with Tony Caldaro's wave count of a wave 3 down which may be starting soon, or my triangle idea I posted fairly recently.

Notice that TLT remains pinned under its 200-day moving average, which is now looking downsloping (see daily chart below). The StochRSI indicator is backtesting its own midline from below - another clue that this may be a resistance test from which price is likely to fall. Similarly, on the weekly chart (also below), the OBV indicator doing a moving average backtest suggests that volumes may be turning negative anytime soon.

As I described it in a post a while back: Got TBT? The ETF called TBT moves inversely to TLT and is one way to play a move down in bond prices.