Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Update look at gold, oil and bonds: surprises ahead through March 10?

As many eyes are on whether the stock market, dollar and other currencies may make important moves from the Bradley turn date yesterday, here's a quick look at gold, oil and YS Treasury notes (10-year notes and bonds). Plus, the reader called "Method" has sent another message (I'll probably have to wait until tomorrow to add Method's charts to this post), speaking of a March 10 turn date. My charts (below) of gold, oil and Treasuries all show that price is likely to move out of a range - if that happens soon, then perhaps the trading game will be to give the move a week or maybe an extra day or so, until March 10, and look for a turn that shows up then.

I've got a sense that bulls and bears will see these charts differently. I think there's nothing wrong with taking the skeptical approach: let price prove it cam breakout (or down), rather than assuming the direction of the next trend.

Before the charts, I'll just quote "Method":
March 2nd Fib Turn Update, 
 
My calls were off, but the turn dates were exact. 
 
Next turn date is March 10th which has the possibility of a trend change - from here either a continuing high or we end up at around the same price level from the Feb 23-25 turn date.

Will see! My understanding is that others see March 10 is important, too, which only adds to the idea of a good low around that time.

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