A precipitous drop in euro (and yen) with concomitant spike in the U.S. dollar accompanied a notable pullback in the equities indices today. Gold dropped smartly too, although oil had only a smaller setback. If this is all thete is to it, and the dollar rolls back down again, then the party should last a while longer. But we should allow now for the dollar to test up to 82 in the dollar index ($USD, see daily and monthly charts below. And it can become more than that.
As I've remarked and tweeted from time to time, I've been skeptical that the moves in dollar and euro were over, and specifically that the euro could go much lower. The move today can be the first step toward that. Maybe it's because U.S. Treasury bonds fell in price, probably because of the healthcare legislation costs, or maybe just because. The StochRSI on the $USD daily chart shows it's in a good move, and its regular RSI isn't overbought. It looks to me like we can't assume today's move will quickly reverse. I'll have to see what this means for the yen, because I thought FXY would be stronger. Otherwise, dollar strength may be just what we've been looking for to give the possibility of better pullback levels in equities, gold, and perhaps oil.
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