Thursday, May 27, 2010

Brief stock market comment for Thursday, May 27

Folks, I'm just posting my own comments right now for today. I don't see a new ChartsEdge map or comment yet, but remember their weekly projection was posted this weekend, and their beta particle-based beta forecast posted a few days ago here (and obviously at the ChartsEdge site) was for the whole week. So what do we make if the futures being so high? One possibility is that the market is now trying to hit into that SPX 1090-1095 range, from which to stage the turn down that Mike Korell mentioned yesterday. And if you review Terry Laundry's T Theory analysis I just posted, you'll understand the importance of the 1090 area/level as resistance. IF the market can make 1090 support instead, we'll be in a more bullish ball game if only for a better bounce from oversold. Whatever intraday gyrations occur, today's closing level will be important.

Remember that the 26th of each month tends to be the "fund manager's special", a buying opportunity in advance of the new money coming in at the beginning of the following new month. Yesterday the market obviously held the critical 1060 SPX level that had been tested under and resumed above. It's almost like a battleground between 1060 and 1090 now! So whatever the intraday fray serves up for daytraders, don't lose your cool and your perspective on the importance of these two levels - SPX 1060 and 1090.

My personal guess is that the market will have difficulty from the likely strong opening (looking at the futures now), and pull back into Friday / Monday. I also remember that 1082-1087 was an important level area before and seems so again. But if the SPX firms above 1090, then just maybe bulls will get a chance to push higher and only retest 1090 on subsequent pullbacks. For now the prudent course looks like being defensive and making the bulls prove whether they can take the market above 1090.

If the bulls cannot do that, then the market does risk falling back toward 1040 and possibly losing that for a test close to 950 - in which case you obviously wanna be short (not long!) for that kind of drop! So as always, careful out there ... and happy market navigating!

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