Thursday, May 20, 2010

ChartsEdge's maps and comments posted earlier today

As they appear, posted by Mike Korell at his ChartsEdge webpage at http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/

=============

BetaP comment

Posted: May 20th, 2010 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under: One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

CHART

I am looking for the "c" wave to complete today near noon.

Pattern Recognition Comment

Posted: May 20th, 2010 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under: One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

The new Pattern charts show a great deal of promise.

The program that does the calculation comes up with 21 possible charts. The measure of how probable the result will be is how flat is the distribution curve of the values for each time frame.

For example, if I look at the 21 different projected price changes between 9:30 and 10:00, the ideal situation would be that all the values would be the same. That would have a flat distribution curve with a spike at the mean. In the real world, the actual ideal distribution curve will have skinny tails. I judge that by calculating the Kurtosis of the data set and removing forecasts which cause the average kurtosis to be higher.

Yesterday's chart was not accurate, but the actual forecast was in the set of 21. It just so happened that yesterday took the path of low probability. The average Kurtosis for the forecast was close to zero. That means that the distribution was close to normal, and not particularly a good forecast. Today is somewhat better with a kurtosis of negative .7. We'll see how that performs.

BetaP Target for the week

Posted: May 20th, 2010 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under: One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

The BetaP chart shows a target for this week at 1090. Closer examination of some of the swings last week make me think that the target for Friday close will be near 1118. If that turns out to be correct, future BetaP charts may not start at the close of the S&P 500 for the previous week, but will be based on a bias value directly from the BetaB data. That would assume that investor bias is retained over the weekend.

Next week's BetaP chart starts slightly bullish, but with limited volatility. The way I interpret that for trading is to wait for the market to move far enough away from the forecast line to catch the move back.

Pattern Recognition

Posted: May 20th, 2010 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under: One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

No comments:

Post a Comment

Welcome to ChartLines (tm)!

Our philosophy is to approach financial markets with unbiased charting for unbiased trading. Our attitude is "No Bull - No Bear - No Bias" (tm). You'll find market and charts commentary here. News feeds by topic are below ... browse our posts by label, and check other sites of interest (listed below).

KI$$ (tm)* S&P 500 index-tracking position:
Cash or caution; should remain above 1274/1296 to support bullish theory. Needs to continue making higher lows on daily charts as well. Caution until past 1360, and also into autumn.. ALERT: bearish setup seems to be confirming - sell rallies (go to cash) or hedge, unless SPX makes 1360 support. Lower lows may be in the weeks ahead.

Oil (USO, etc.) - Await confirmation that low is in.

Natural gas (UNG, etc.) Possible cycle low completed, but KI$$ traders should most likely avoid this given vulnerability to being a longer term bear market.

Gold & Silver: Possible low carved 6/4-8/12; cautiously long assuming that's important support. If this low doesn't hold, then 1392 remains possible. If for some reason 1392 didn't hold then it could fall toward 1100-1200 so respect the levels. If this low holds then may well start heading toward new highs.

US Treasury Bonds: holding up surprisingly well and may continue as reserve/quality if stock markets break down.

*KI$$ is Ariel's trademarked and proprietary portfolio position indicator, primarily for stock-market tracking accounts. This will be updated to the greatest extent reasonably possible. Also be sure to follow posts about specific asset classes, updated from time to time. However, guarantees cannot be provided; see site's disclaimers and take responsibility for your own investments.

A special welcome to all my trading buddies from the previous UnbiasedTrading.blogspot! (and particularly those going all the way back to TTC days!)

I post here my charts - preferably with lines marked, eh?! - and comments on how I'm seeing the markets going. Certain other analysts are featured here on a regular basis, as they have given permission for their commentaries to be posted here - always with reference to their own sites of course (they're among the "Other Sites of Interest" listed below). From time to time I also post quotes, reviews or references of published work by additional technical or financial analysts - always with citations to their work.

And I provide my own chart analysis and commentaries, whether as standalone posts or as introduction to the featured work of others. All with the purpose of helping others gain more insight into ways to navigate financial markets happily, and we hope successfully.

My occasional @ChartLines tweets are at Twitter.com/ChartLines.

Money management is critical to the success of any trader or investor, but it's important to have good analysis, whether swing trading, intraday trading or investing. Browse this site (home) and see how the unbiased trading approach of ChartLines can help you too!

Other Sites of Interest:

Here are other sites of interest for good analysis, reference and input. The order of the sites listed isn't necessarily to indicate priority, of course:

1. Watershed research on market forecasting from Chartsedge (including very neat "maps" for intraday), by Mike Korell: Weekly cycle charts at Chartsedge, and daily (intraday) charts posted periodically at Chartsedge Daily Market Maps. (For access to daily maps when posted overnight, you'll need the reasonably-priced ChartsEdge subscription.)

2. Andre Gratian's market analysis which he puts forward at SafeHaven.com, and his website is http://www.marketurningpoints.com/.

3. Objective Elliott Wave as presented by Anthony Caldaro at his the Elliott Wave Lives On site (his public charts are available from the charts links he provides there).

4. Cycles work by Jim Curry at CycleWave - Market Turns. There's also another cycles analyst I refer to often, Tim Wood at his Cycles News & Views service. Each of these experts has a very good track record and a remarkable amount of work, explanation and attention to detail. In addition, Tim also comments on Kondratieff waves and Dow Theory, and addressses equities markets, bonds, gold, currencies, commodities and more.

5. John Hampson's modeling at http://amalgamator.co.uk, based on geomagnetics, the Bradley siderograph and full moon/new moon cycles, also looking at gold, VIX and other indicators for perspective.

6. Financial astrology and sociological-economic commentary by Raymond Merriman at mmacycles.com, including free weekly comments at Merriman Market Analyst Weekly Comments.

7. Bill Luby's VIX and More blogspot. Also VIX, put/call (options) and sentiment commentary by Todd Salamone and others, including Bernie Schaeffer himself of course, at Schaeffer's Research site. Sentiment surveys by the ISE (the ISEE charts and data, accessible for equities/indices/ETFs), SentimenTrader, and the TickerSense sentiment poll at TickerSense.

8. Weekly COT (commitments of traders) reports - sadly, they only come out each Friday afternoon reporting on COT positions as of the preceding Tuesday, so always a bit dated: COT (Commitments of Traders). There's also COTS Timer blogspot. And check out the Option Pain CBOE (Max-Pain) Calculator from OptionPain.com.

9. Excellent trading education, training and psychology at Brett Steenbarger's TraderFeed blogspot. Weekly economic calendar as presented by MarketWatch; and FXStreet.com's daily updated economic calendar covering the U.S. and other countries.

10. New - news and insight at Jesse's Café Américain. Articles and interviews posted at GreenLightAdvisor; "The Macro View" at Seeking Alpha; Markets news, insights and perspectives at Minyanville News & Views; a blogs review at 4Best4Worst Blogs; anything at Financial Ninja; posts at Bespoke Investment Group; quick wit along with some wisdom and insights: Crossing Wall Street; and financial news analysis from the experts at Naked Capitalism.

11. Terry Laundry's T Theory work at his T Theory website. There are also other sites that have some good technical analysis like Shanky's TechBlog; technical analysis by Kenny at Kenny's Technical Analysis Blog; trendline analysis at http://xtrends.blogspot.com/; and Carl Swenlin's work at DecisionPoint.com.

12. PTV-Investing Blog where Andy Askey uses Gann analysis and price/time overbought/oversold measures, plus volume to assess market strength. Also keep an eye on Elliott Wave analysis at AllAllan's blogspot, and Daneric's Elliott Waves blogspot too. You might check out Carl Futia's blogspot, and Carolan website with "solunar" calendar and more. Drop in at Charts and Coffee too, for a range of market charts. May start checking out The Chart Pattern Trader blogspot ...

13. Charting you can do at Stockcharts (and if you're doing intra-day trading you should consider their subscription package that includes intraday real-time data) ... don't overlook their very good free "Chart School" including how to use indicators, at Stockcharts Chart School.

14. My other blogspot "Tao of Trading" with commentaries about psychology and similar aspects of trading, at Tao of Trading.
Birthcharts under the Five Elements system are available - if interested in having a birthchart detailed specifically for your birthdate (specific date and time including time zone information are needed), email chartlines@yahoo.com and
indicate payment arrangements. Payment of $60 per birthchart can be arranged via PayPal.
The $60 birthchart includes a full electronic document detailed to your specific birth date and time. You can order for yourself, and/or for others (makes a thoughtful gift when a child is born, for another's birthday gift, wedding or for any other occasion). For an extra $20, a quick "love match" or "relationship match" page can be added. For this, all that's needed are the birth dates of both people (exact times not required).

15. An arts blogspot, Christa's Fine Art Paintings, a gallery of artwork she painted through the decades.

CHARTLINES (tm)

Thursday, May 20, 2010

ChartsEdge's maps and comments posted earlier today

BetaP comment

Pattern Recognition Comment

BetaP Target for the week

Pattern Recognition

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wikinvest Wire

Welcome to ChartLines (tm)!

Twitter updates:

Twitter Updates

Tony Caldaro's OEW updates

List of posts by labels:

Add PayPal functionality to your business:

Other Sites of Interest:

World Climate

Feed of posts from my "UBTNB3" site

Bloomberg TV

CHARTLINES (tm)

Thursday, May 20, 2010

ChartsEdge's maps and comments posted earlier today

BetaP comment

Pattern Recognition Comment

BetaP Target for the week

Pattern Recognition

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wikinvest Wire

Welcome to ChartLines (tm)!

Twitter updates:

Twitter Updates

Tony Caldaro's OEW updates

List of posts by labels:

Add PayPal functionality to your business:

Other Sites of Interest:

World Climate

Subscribe to ChartsLines blog

Feed of posts from my "UBTNB3" site

Bloomberg TV