Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Euro continues testing for support, for potential stock market signal

One of our more important stock market signals is the euro ($XEU). Recently I showed that it was poised to test the 50% retrace on my old monthly chart (second chart below), around or under 121.40. Well it's gotten close to that but not quite, so we'll see. It was rather springy today! Notice there's positive divergence on the daily chart - in fact, the StochRSI (set conservatively on 21 rather than the default 14-day) actually sprang above its 50 midline level, and tested back to it. This move by this indicator suggests that the euro might actually be ready to move up. If it does, then I'm thinking about 130 looks like one potential target.

We'll need to remain cautious since it didn't get all the way to 121, and might need to consolidate a bit anyway before being seriously ready for a good move up. But I'm just saying this because it's good to remain prepared in case the StochRSI setup I mentioned doesn't do much. I'd feel better about it if the euro had landed on 121 ... But since the SPX also did a hard test of 1060 by testing the 1040-1044 area again that Andre Gratian mentioned (also Bill Luby of VIXandMore, and maybe Kevin Depew), then vaulted back above 1060 after I tweeted about the bullish cup-and-handle that formed intraday just under 1060 ... Let's be open to the possibility that the euro may get support around here. A substantial swing low in the euro would signal a substantial swing low for the stock market too.

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