Pivot levels to clue swing traders whether or not the stock markets will reverse the uptrend: Tony Caldaro's OEW update

The stock markets showed more complexity last week than they had in a while! I'm still harboring an idea about and ABC correction before new highs ... and if you read Ray Merriman's warnings, you also were on your toes for the volatility. But we value Tony Caldaro for measuring out the potential wave possibilities. The Objective Elliott Wave concepts of Tony Caldaro help measure out the market's movements, trend, and probabilities. We appreciate being able to feature Tony's weekend updates. They're full of insightful analysis, which is also why we keep his site and daily updates feed at the right side of the page (thanks again Tony!). Let's find out what he's seeing and saying in this weekend's update:
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the Elliott Wave Lives On
by Tony Caldaro
April 30, 2010

weekend update

REVIEW

After a volatile week US markets experience their worse decline since the week of Jan 18th. Which was during the last downtrend. Foreign markets remained under pressure for the third week in a row. The FED left rates unchanged after their two day FOMC meeting. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. Consumer confidence/sentiment rose, the Chicago PMI continued to expand, jobless claims lessened, and preliminary Q1 GDP displayed 3.2% growth. Our weekly LEI came in at an expanding 62.4% and Public sentiment continues to remain bearish at with only a 37.2% reading. For the week the SPX/DOW were -2.2%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.7%. The Asian markets were -1.1%, European markets were -3.1%, and the Commodity equity markets were -2.0%. Bonds gained 1.3%, Crude was +1.2%, Gold was +1.9%, and the USD was +0.5%. This upcoming week is highlighted by non-farm payrolls on friday, personal income/spending and the ISM reports.
LONG TERM: bull market
The bull market hit a new high on monday at SPX 1220. This represents an 83% rise from the Mar09 low at SPX 667 in just 13 months. After such a sharp rise in a short period of time this market is certainly subject to periodic corrections as it works its way higher. From the Mar09 low we count a bullish five wave structure. Primary wave I Jun09 at SPX 956, Primary wave II July09 at SPX 869, Major wave 1 Jan10 at SPX 1150, Major wave 2 Feb10 at SPX 1045, and part of Major wave 3/Intermediate wave one during this current uptrend to SPX 1220 thus far. This count is displayed on the SPX weekly chart in the link below. It is still too early in the wave structure to be projecting a price target for the bull market, and/or a potential top.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy
After making a new uptrend high at SPX 1220 on monday the market resumed its recent two week volatility. The sharp selloff on tuesday created the largest pullback of the entire two month uptrend - 38 points. Then the market appeared to recover on wed/thurs, rallying back to SPX 1209. On friday, however, we had another sharp pullback of 23 points and closed near the lows. From the beginning of the uptrend in early February the largest pullback had been only 26 points with one other pullback at 20 points. In the past two weeks alone the market has pulled back 30, 21, 38 and now 23 points. Volatility often occurs while uptrends are forming a top as upside momentum wanes. Our price target projection for this uptrend has been between SPX 1219 and SPX 1326. These are two fibonacci relationships to Major wave 1. Monday the SPX hit the minimum target with negative divergences on most timeframes up to and including the daily charts. A 3.1% decline followed as the SPX dropped from 1220 to 1182. When the SPX hit that low it was oversold and then looked like it had started to recover. Friday's selling, however, pushed the short term OEW charts into negative territory again. At this point we can not yet confirm that the uptrend is over and a new downtrend is underway. The early part of the week should give a signal one way or the other. For now we are still in an uptrend until confirmed otherwise.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX remains at 1187 and then 1176, with resistance at 1222 and then 1240. Short term momentum is quite oversold. The uptrend is at a critical juncture. The OEW pivot at 1187 has created support for all the pullbacks of the past two weeks. Should the SPX drop to the next pivot at 1176 it can still maintain its uptrend. But a break below this pivot would suggest that the uptrend ended at SPX 1220 and a downtrend (correction) is underway. On the upside, the SPX needs to climb back above 1200 to turn the short term OEW charts positive again. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets were -1.1% on the week. Japan's NIKK (+1.3%) led and China's SSEC (-3.8%) lagged. The SSEC is in a downtrend. 
The European markets were -3.1% on the week. Germany's DAX (-2.0%) led and Spain's IBEX (-3.9%) lagged. The SMI and IBEX are in a downtrends.
The Commodity equity markets were -2.0% on the week. Canada's TSX (-0.2%) led and Brazil's BVSP (-2.8%) lagged. The BVSP is in a downtrend.
COMMODITIES
Bonds gained 1.3% on the week. Bond prices are close to confirming an uptrend is this very choppy market.
Crude gained 1.2% on the week. This February uptrend continues.
Gold gained 1.9% on the week. Both gold and silver have been uptrending since February and made new uptrend highs on friday.
The USD uptrend is nearly six months old now. It started in Nov09. Daily chart displays another negative divergence at the recent high.
NEXT WEEK
Busy week ahead on the economic front. On monday Consumer income/spending at 8:30, ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10:00, then Auto sales in the afternoon. On tuesday, Factory orders and Pending home sales. Wednesday we have the ADP employment index and ISM services. Then on thursday the weekly Jobless claims and Q1 productivity. On friday, the Payrolls report and Consumer credit. The FED has only one speech scheduled and that is by chairman Bernanke on thursday. Late and short update this week. Took some time out for the Kentucky Derby. Calvin Borel is certainly in a bull market. Best to your week!
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987