Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Gold being heavy in a wedgie, can drop like a rock as it runs out of time for higher

Let everyone else talk today about the "market crash" that we were posting about yesterday! (Including Andre Gratian's warnings about what happens if the SPX didn't get over 1084 which it didn't manage yesterday, plus ChartsEdge warning about the market crashing after consolidation Monday, plus my own little effort at depicting a possible triangle from which the market could make a steep decline toward 950 or 1000 (those targets fine tuned in my prior post today). Let's take a look at gold! Andre Gratian has posted about it and I added my own thoughts also yesterday - and today, it looked very heavy testing lower trendline support. If the idea of an ending diagonal triangle (that's Elliott Wave lingo) wedge is correct, then gold has about run out of time to make a new high. If gold makes a new high after this week then that would violate the wedge pattern as I count it out. All in all, with the technicals weak and GLD (the gold ETF) looking heavy (hey - gold IS very dense after all, LOL), I'm playing this from the short side with a stop at yesterday's highs.

Conceivably it could poke higher today, maybe Thursday, and still be ready to break down from the bearish wedge. But as I'm counting it out, it really could not make a higher high on Friday or especially next week, without invalidating the bearish wedge idea. Might that happen? Theoretically yes, but the pattern looks valid, and the technicals are weak, so I'm thinking that gold really is topping out. Look out below! GLD to 114 or 116 looks reasonable, and then after a consolidation from the first drop, I'd expect the usual steeper and deeper drop.

No comments:

Post a Comment