Monday, June 28, 2010

S&P 500 level 1077 acting like a pivot on today's range, so look for breakout either upward or down soon

The 1077 level in the $SPX is looking like a pivot based on today's range-bound trade. I even want to call this range another triangle! (Note the daily swing trade chart I posted at the UBTNB3 blog, see links at right side of the page, where it looks to me like a large triangle I marked onto the QQQQ daily bars chart.) Point being, the market might indeed break down out of this triangle or range and head lower, quickly. Despite the idea of window-dressing into June 30, and the lure of new-month new-money, it can happen. It's looking like SPX 1074, and especially 1072, must hold.

Another option is for the market to bust upward and test 1090 or above, before resuming downtrending. In this scenario, I'd look for the movements to be fast both upward from today's intraday range and also on another reversal downward. (For Elliott Wave technicians, this possibility would in my opinion be a second wave expressing as the initial abc=A into Friday's price levels, then today providing a triangular wave B. Then the thrust upward as a wave C to complete a second-wave pullback up ... before a third wave down within what I'm considering a C-wave thrust down out of the larger, daily bar chart triangle.

So, it really does mean that I remain overall bearish despite the possibility for a bounce, which the market did not handle well today. In the little chart above right, I've simply marked out the intraday triangle I'm seeing, plus support/resistance levels.

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