Thursday, June 10, 2010

Why I'm still concerned that oil prices may drop deeply

I'm still concerned that the price of oil will drop lower so here are some views to illustrate that. First on my daily chart of the crude oil price ($WTIC), price dropped under the lower parallel channel trendline and has only now re-tested back up to that broken trendline (mentally extend my trendline since I haven't updated to extend it out to date - but it's pretty clear). It's similar to what you see on my monthly chart too. Except the monthly shows where price got support at the Bollinger Band midline plus other moving average support. Then I also added a copy of Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave chart of $WTIC weekly, from his public charts via his Elliott Wave Lives On site (see sites list and feeds at right - thanks again Tony!). While I confess I'm not proficient enough in Tony's OEW to understand his likely projections (though he does discuss them typically in his weekend updates), I do get the impression he may think there's either a second wave or "b" wave down that can go much deeper. Tony does acknowledge on his daily chart that $WTIC is downtrending.

If oil does as I "fear" by rolling over and down from retesting my trendlines, then it could lose the supports indicated on my monthly support and go much lower. Could it even drop under its 2007/2009 lows? I gather that's not guaranteed, it could be a retrace or a double bottom. Personally I do think there's an outside chance it could carve new lows, but I won't push that view. I'll just say that I think oil may be simply bouncing in a countertrend move that can roll over very soon to head lower. If it loses the monthly Bollinger Band midline, then the lower Bollinger Band level may come into play ...! Right now that means about $40 which wouldn't be a new low, but certainly would be a sizable drop.

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