Saturday, August 14, 2010

Federal Reserve's guarding against double-dip recession part of the markets entering known territory: Raymond Merriman's weekly preview

Treasuries made new "Bubble II" highs as stock indices dropped and fears of a double-dip recession were voiced. We start our weekend as usual with Raymond Merriman's weekly preview. His perspective on the markets, economy, and even political climate is truly unique. He always has remarkable insights to share. We'll see what he's saying in his public comments this weekend, incorporating his cycles analysis with his financial astrology for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities - for commentaries that are always fascinating. Here's Ray Merriman's set of public preview comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst MMACycles Weekly Preview Comments:

MMA Comments for the Week Beginning August 16, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

Did you see that?

The Federal Reserve Board’s decision last Tuesday to resume buying U.S. Treasuries (but not mortgage backed securities) instead of drawing down its post-2007 triple-sized bloated balance sheet, is at least the third major development that has occurred within the midsection of the Cardinal Climax, July 21-August 21. The other two include passage of the “Financial Regulatory Reform Act” on July 21 and the extremely dry and hot drought conditions that have caused deadly fires in Russia, and led to a huge run up in Wheat prices around the world.

Many world equity markets fell fairly hard last week, following the series of intermarket bearish divergence signals in all regions of the world between June 21 and the highs that have occurred within the central time band of this Cardinal Climax. In Europe, the AEX of Netherlands attained a recent high of 341 on August 4, which was below its high of 343.32 recorded on June 21. The SMI of Switzerland also made a lower high on August 6 at 6409 than its previous cycle high of 6531 on June 21. But this not the case in the German DAX and London FTSE, which both exceeded their highs of June 21. The DAX made a new yearly high at 6386 on August 6, and the FTSE made a new cycle high of 5418 on August 9. Each of these indices then fell sharply into weekly lows on Thursday or Friday.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, intermarket bearish divergence was also evident on the recent highs into the heart of the Cardinal Climax. The 9750-9760 highs of July 28 and August 3 in the Japanese Nikkei Index were far below its 10,251 high of June 21. Australia’s All Ordinaries got to 4618 on August 9, but that was slightly under the prior cycle high of 4631 on June 21. But the Hang Seng or Hang Kong, NIFTY of India, and MICEX of Moscow all make new cycle highs in this Cardinal Climax midsection before tumbling down into the end of last week.

In the Americas, the Bovespa of Brazil and Merval index of Argentina made new cycle highs on August 9, along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They all exceeded their prior cycle highs of June 21. However this did not occur in the NASDAQ Composite Index, which could only get up to 2309 on August 9, well below its 2341 high of June 21. When you have so many cases of intermarket bearish divergence in a critical reversal zone, where one index in a region makes a new cycle high and others do not, it is oftentimes followed with a sharp decline. In many cases, it will indicate a primary cycle crest is in. If that is the case now, the market could be under pressure into the mid-term elections, or Venus changing to its retrograde direction (October 8). The last Venus retrograde took place on March 6, 2009, the low of the “Panic Crisis” bear market. Every 8 years it retrogrades in approximately the same degree of the zodiac. In this case that will be in Scorpio. The Venus retrograde of 8 years ago was on October 10, 2002. That was also the low of a 4-year cycle, and the end to a bear market in stocks around the world.

 Equities were not the only financial markets to make noteworthy moves last week. The most important development was in the U.S. Treasury markets, which blasted upwards following the Fed’s decision to resume purchase of these very long-term debt obligations of the U.S. Government. We said there could be a bubble, and if it happened in Treasures, it would result in “Double Bubble Trouble.” Indeed, that seems to be happening now as Treasuries approach the levels present in the height of the 2008 Panic. The Fed’s decision makes one wonder if things are progressing so badly that there is real danger of another economic and market collapse. Why would they take Treasuries back to the level of the 2008 crisis days if the economy was improving and stabilizing as the White House and its “Economic Dream Team” continues to insist? Somebody is not telling the whole story to the American people and the world. Don’t take my word for it. Take the word of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank report issued last week, stating that “… the probability that the U.S. economy will slip back into recession over the next two years is higher than that of economic expansion.” (, August 10).

Short-Term Geocosmics

Another powerful line up of geocosmic signatures is set to engage this week, which is all part of the July 21-August 21 midsection of this tremendous celestial pattern known as the Cardinal Climax (2008-2015). The good news is that we will begin to exit the deepest part of the cosmic abyss. The not-so-good-news is that some of the decisions that have been made and policies that have been enacted in the past three weeks may lead to prolonged economic difficulties and perhaps bear markets in several financial markets. That, by the way, is an opinion of mine and not a given fact. I could be wrong, because we are in uncharted waters, and no one knows for certain what the consequences will be. But over the next few weeks (and in Forecast 2011) I will explain my reasoning within the context of historical instances of such geocosmic signatures and their correlation to the outcome similar economic and political themes.

We have much to look forward to this coming week in terms of geocosmic activity that will complete this phase – the fifth and deepest layer - of the Cardinal Climax. On Friday, August 13, Uranus moves back into Pisces from Aries. It will return to Aries for seven years after March 4, 2011. In the meantime, it may suggest going back and redoing parts of the Health Care Reform Act (Pisces rules health care, and Uranus represents changes). Perhaps Congress will consider removing the onerous non-health care mandate within that bill of hiring thousands of new IRS agents with the task of siphoning through massive amounts of new government reporting requirements for quarterly business expenditures exceeding $600. What does hiring more IRS agents have to do with health care reform, if the cost is not a tax?

On Monday, August 16, Jupiter will form its second of three oppositions to Saturn. This is a 20-year planetary cycle that has a fairly reliable correlation to long-term market cycles, and oftentimes coincides with 4-year cycles. You may remember the last opposition between these two planets was in 1990, which also coincided with a recession and a modest bear market in stocks. It also correlated with a hefty tax increase by President George H. Bush (father of ‘W’).

At the end of this week (August 20-21), the current phase of the Cardinal Climax will end with Venus will conjunct Mars in Libra (Venus rules Libra, Mars is in detriment in Libra), the Sun will be in opposition to Neptune (a very powerful Level 1 reversal signature), Mercury will commence its three-week retrograde motion through September 12, and Saturn will end its 32-37 year waning square to Pluto cycle. As stated last week, “Then we might be able to look back and realize the importance of what just happened. Or maybe we will even need to wait until Mercury retrograde ends before we begin to understand it all.”

Longer-Term Thoughts

 Laying on the ground up here late into the night, in the back woods and on the ancient inland waterways of Northern Michigan, watching the awesome shooting stars of the Perseid meteor showers, it came to me in a flash. The Cardinal Climax is all about a shift in power, a shift in the balance of power in all aspects of world finance and politics. Think of it as the decisions that will lead to shift in power between banks, business, and the government and its new army of regulators, not to mention the people (who are they in this new world that is being crafted?). A shift in the value of currencies, and hence rearrangement of economic strength of nations, may be a natural result of what is transpiring in the heat of the Cardinal Climax. In my opinion, this powerful time band is indeed living up to its hype. Money will soon be valued differently, led by different nations and different standards than are used today. An era is coming to an end.

 This cause for this shift in power is related to the explosion of debt in the world, and how various countries are dealing completely differently with it. “The economy is looking brighter in Britain and Germany after these governments announced plans to reduce spending,” according to an article in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal by Professor Allen Metzner, titled, “Europe Jumps of the Keynesian Bus.” But what did the United States do?

Last week the United States and its Central Bank, the Federal Reserve Board, had a choice regarding economic policy. They could take Britain and Germany’s path of “Chic Austerity,” denoted by Saturn in Libra as it forms a T-square to the Sun-Pluto opposition of the FRB chart (December 23, 6:02 PM, Washington, DC, source: New York Times via Matt Carnicelli of the ISAR Financial Yahoo groups). Or they could continue the “Keynesian Bus” path of Jupiter-Uranus conjunction in early Aries, (“Chic Stimulus”), which is in T-square also (from the other side) to the Fed Sun-Pluto opposition. This path will encourage greater spending and debt with the hope (again) that this time it will really result in reducing the national deficit. Go figure how spending more money has - or will - reduce the deficit in this phase of the economic cycle.

If the Fed and Government want to be truly serious about getting people back to work, why not take Mark Leibovit’s idea ( and make those 0-.25% loans available to credit-worthy businesses who really need the money and can hire people to make the economy grow again, rather than solely to “banksters” that are members of the Fed and hoard the money? Do you know anyone who can really borrow money at the much publicized rate of 0- .25%? Do you know any banks that will lend that money - that is only available to them at this rate – for anything less than 8%? If they lend it at all? For why should they take the risk of loaning it out at even 8% to credit worthy businesses, when they can simply turn around and buy 4% U.S. Treasuries with absolutely no risk and at the guarantee of the U.S. Government? Or are they missing something? I don’t know what it is, but I think they are missing something. When Jupiter and Uranus square your Sun (as it is doing in the Fed chart) you tend to over-estimate and make decisions that could lead to losses. When it squares your Pluto (as it is doing in the Fed chart), there is a tendency to increase your debt when you should be paring down your liabilities.

I am not sure what the results will be from these decisions of the past three weeks, and especially last Tuesday. But as a Financial Astrologer, it seems clear that this government and this central bank are still following the ghost of John Maynard Keynes, and going the route of Jupiter and Uranus in Aries. They are pushing the pedal to the metal as they rev up the depleted engine of a deteriorating economy for one last run. As Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal writes (taking a lead from our columns of the last few weeks perhaps), “Yesterday the Fed decided it won’t shrink its balance sheet, which would have resulted in monetary policy moving from 200 miles per hour to 190 or so. Instead the Fed will stay at full throttle, reinvesting the proceeds from expiring mortgage-backed securities on its balance sheet into direct purchases of long-term treasury securities.” They are not even going to continue supporting the weakest part of the economy, the housing sector. They are supporting banks (themselves included). But it’s getting dark outside and the lights on this race car of monetary policy are about to go out. It’s another "double or nothing" gamble and it may very well indeed lead Treasuries into “Double Bubble Trouble.” It is only a matter of time before we hear, “What the ____ do I do now?”


We are now accepting orders for the Forecast 2011 book now via phone (1-248-626-3034), fax (1-248-538-5296), or email ( In another week you will be able to order directly from our website too. We are pleased to announce the price will remain the same as last year. That is $55.00 if ordered after October 31, and $45.00 if ordered before (plus postage). We will also be offering special 10% discount rate for our subscription services to those who also per-order Forecast 2011. For a review of the forecasts from the Forecast 2010 book, please go to, and scroll down to about the third or fourth article on the opening screen. Or go directly to

If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report.  I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.” Order now with the Forecast 2011 Book and receive a special 10% rate reduction through October.

CD’s DVD’s, and MP3’s of the July 11 webcast are now available!!! Each of these various ways to see the event can now be ordered via our website at (just click the opening banner), or by calling 1-248-3034 or email operations at The cost of each is $45.00, plus postage if necessary. This webcast covered our outlook for stocks, precious metals, interest rates and Treasuries, foreign currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. Dollar, and Grains. We pick this time because it was right before the astrological midpoint of the Cardinal Climax, which is taking place now. It may be the peak of the huge trend reversals expected in many of these markets, aided and abetted by major changes of trend in geopolitical matters. It is interesting to see how the stocks, grains and currencies moved right up into this time band, as outlined in this presentation. You won’t want to miss this. Order now, because most of the trading opportunities presented are in effect mainly from July 21 through October 8, 2010!!! is holding a three-day video conference on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, October 1st, 2nd, and 3, 2010. This pioneering Internet astrological conference features dozens of internationally known speakers.  Very economically priced, all participants have access to all live broadcasts with the ability to replay them from the archives for up to three months. Call (212) 929-4507 or email

I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won’t manage other people’s money. That is especially true now with the volatility in the market place as of late. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one’s portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to our services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O’Neill of Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at, or 1-(303) 247-0600. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. Both are very knowledgeable of the tools I use, of the way I am looking at markets, and yet each makes their own decisions as exactly when to enter and exit any market.

To the above list, I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded the “Best in-house fund of funds” in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner’s funds, please contact him through

OK. You’ve asked about classes in Financial Astrology, and I am giving two of them in great South American cities in late September and early October. Since these constitute “investment education,” many of you will be able to write the expenses of this trip off (travel, some meals, and cost of conferences). Here are some more details of each – and I hope to see many subscribers at each:

September 23-26, 2010: Buenos Aires! Seminar on Financial and Mundane Astrology with Raymond Merriman and others, with special emphasis on Argentina’s Merval Index and precious metals and whatever else is of interest to participants, for each Financial Astrology workshop is different. For more information, contact Claudia Rizzi at, or visit our web site at If you only speak Spanish, go to We will host a special gathering of MMA Subscribers at the end of the seminar, depending on interest expressed. 

October 1-2, 2010: Rio de Janeiro! Workshop on Financial Astrology with Raymond Merriman, plus a Mundane Astrology panel with Merriman and others. The workshop will have with special emphasis on Brazil’s Bovespa Index and precious metals, and whatever else is of interest to participants. For more information, contact Renato Chebar at We may host a special gathering for MMA Subscribers on Sunday, October 3, the day of Brazil’s elections, if enough subscribers request such a meeting.

January 14-16, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. “Forecasts 2011” symposia featuring top mundane and financial astrologers, plus one day workshop on Financial Market Timing with Ray Merriman, to be followed by a special meeting with MMA Subscribers (at no cost). For more details, go to

March 10-12, 2011: Mexico City, Mexico. Speech on Forecasts 2011, and workshop on “Evolutionary Astrology: The Journey of the Soul Through States of Consciousness.” For information, please contact

April 28 and 30, 2011: Kansas City, Mo. “Forecasts for 2011” and “Financial Astrology Workshop” with Raymond Merriman. Sponsored by AOA. Details soon. This will be the next Financial Astrology workshop in the United States.

September 1-8, 2011: Bali! "Financial Astrology" Intensive workshop with Raymond Merriman, and "Mundane Astrology" with Claude Weiss. For more information on this unique week-long intensive and incredible South Pacific paradise adventure, please go to

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007-2010; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

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