Friday, August 27, 2010

Market reversals and rollercoasters are fast in both directions - and will continue: Raymond Merriman's weekly preview comments

Raymond Merriman has warned of a bond bubble for a while, and we saw more of that this week as Treasuries (and TLT and corporate bonds like the ETF, LQD) continued spiking into Thursday. He's got a very interesting way of interweaving economic perspective, political analysis, and market cycles with financial astrology, for a walk on the eye-opening side that's insightful and fun to read. So once again we turn to Raymond Merriman's weekly preview. His perspective on the markets, economy, and even political climate is truly unique. He always has remarkable insights to share. We'll see what he's saying in his public comments this weekend, incorporating his cycles analysis with his financial astrology for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities - for commentaries that are always fascinating. Here's Ray Merriman's set of public preview comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst MMACycles Weekly Preview Comments:

MMA Comments for the Week Beginning August 30, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

 In the first week following the geocosmic center mass of the Cardinal Climax, and the first week of the new Mercury retrograde cycle (August 20-September 12), equity markets around the world continued their sell-off, and then appeared to reverse at the very end of the week. Yet what may be more interesting is how many economic leaders are changing their tune about the future of the economy since going through that midsection of the Cardinal Climax, July 21-August 21. Prior to - and even during the early part of that time band - the near-unanimous consensus was that the USA would not have a double dip recession. Now the majority are stating that the odds of a double dip recession have just increased, with some actually calling for an outright double dip recession in the next year. Welcome to Mercury retrograde, on the heels of the Cardinal Climax. You are likely to hear many adjusted and “double message” forecasts about the probability of a “double dip recession” as U.S. Treasuries continue to exhibit a “double bubble trouble” pattern.

 In Europe, all equity indices we follow declined to new monthly lows on Wednesday, August 25. Those lows did not take out the lows of early July, and were followed by decent rallies into Friday. In Asia and the Pacific Rim, it was a little different. Most indices bottomed on August 25, but in the case of the Japanese Nikkei, it was a new yearly low, below 9000. The Nikkei fell to 8807 on August 25, its lowest price since May 1, 2009. In India, the market didn’t fall to a low at all. In fact the NIFTY index made a new yearly high on August 23.

 In the Americas, The Argentine Merval index made a low on August 25 too. Brazil’s Bovespa bottomed out the next day. And in the USA, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite bottomed early Friday, and then commenced a healthy rally into the close, following Ben Bernanke’s speech from the Jackson Hole, Wyoming banking summit. Each of these indices held above their lows of early July.

 Gold and especially Silver found new life as well after initial softness early last week. From a low of 1773 on Tuesday, September Silver shot up to 1934 during the day on Friday. It closed around 1904. Gold made a new monthly high at 1246 on Thursday in the December contract. Less than a month ago it was trading below 1160. Crude Oil’s performance was similar to the equities and precious metals. That is, it ended a decline to 70.76 on Wednesday, August 25, its lowest price since early June, and then rallied to close the week above 75.00 on Friday.

 But the big story continues to be in U.S. Treasuries. They reached a new post-panic high on Wednesday, August 25, but then fell sharply into the close of the week. The Japanese Yen was another fascinating story. It skyrocketed to nearly 120 on Tuesday, August 24, its highest level since the all-time highs of early 1995, and then sold off sharply into the close of the week too.

Short-Term Geocosmics

So what was so important about early last week, when equities and Silver bottomed, while Treasuries and the Japanese Yen topped out? Well, it was within three trading days of three important “Level 1” (strongest) geocosmic signatures that unfolded August 20 and 21. These included the Sun-Neptune opposition, Venus-Mars conjunction, and the 32-37 year waning square of Saturn and Pluto. On top of that, Mercury also turned retrograde on August 20. Combinations like this, so close in time to one another, usually produce a reversal within three trading days. This was no exception. How long this reversal will last, however, is another matter, because under Mercury retrograde, reversals oftentimes do not last long. More often than not, big price thrusts in any direction usually lose momentum quickly, i.e. within 4 trading days. We also note that these reversals occurred close to the Virgo-Pisces full moon of Tuesday, August 24. Lunations in mutable signs seem to have the most correspondence to reversals in many financial markets, as opposed to lunations in other types of signs.

The next series of important geocosmic signatures starts up on September 4. An abundance of signatures will then unfold lasting through Venus retrograde on October 8. Prepare yourself for another roller coaster ride during that 5-week period, for in addition to ending with the powerful Venus retrograde, we will also encounter the second of three Jupiter-Uranus conjunction passages on September 18. These are two of the highest historical correspondences of all geocosmic signatures to primary or greater cycles in equities, as reported in the studies of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.”

Longer-Term Thoughts

 For some time now I have been writing about a “bubble” in financial assets. More recently (since June) I have referenced that such a bubble seems to building in U.S. Treasuries. But the concept of “bubbles” means different things to different analysts. In the strictest numerical sense, a “bubble” is a phenomenon where a financial asset increases sharply in price without any notable and normal declines. In almost all cases, the advance of that asset is at least 100% of a price from which the move up started. More often than not, the increase is 4-10 times higher.

 Bubbles have correlations to Financial Astrology. They pertain to Jupiter and/or Uranus, either in the skies at a given point in time, or to the chart of particular entity associated with a financial market. The NASDAQ Composite’s tech bubble started from a base of 750 when Uranus entered Aquarius in 1995 to its high of over 5000 in March 2000, as Uranus advanced to the last third of Aquarius, squared by Saturn and Jupiter in Taurus. Aquarius is associated with technology, and the NSADAQ is a tech-heavy index. Or you could look at the bubble in Crude Oil as Uranus moved into Pisces in early 2003 from a base of about $25/barrel to a high of $147.27 in July 2008, when Uranus was in the last third of Pisces. Pisces is the sign associated with Crude Oil. In each case, the ensuing decline took prices down 70-80% within 6-24 months.

 But there is another way to look at bubbles rather in terms of multiples of 4-10 times. Bubbles can coincide with periods of excessive greed or fear, driving investors to flock to a particular investment and thus drive its value sharply higher. This is the case with Treasuries right now, in my opinion, and the basis for my concerns that Treasuries are forming a “Double Bubble Trouble.” There is no way that Treasury Bonds or Notes will appreciate 4-10 times their price at the base from which the move up began, due to the way Treasuries are valued. From a base of 95-105 in 1999 and 2007, Ten Year Treasury Notes rallied to an all-time high of 130/25 on December 19, 2008, as the Federal Reserve Board experienced its 12-year Jupiter return. That was also in the peak of the Financial Panic. It fell back to 115 as recently as April 2010, but is now approaching the 130 area again (the high last week was close to 127).

 The reason I suspect this is a bubble is because of the psychology behind this sharp run up in the last 4 months. It is due to excessive fear, again, as investors have piled much more money into the “safety” of Treasuries than they have the stock market. I see this as a dangerous trend – even a “bubble” - due to the psychological factors. But I also see it as “bubble” from the Financial Astrology point of view. Jupiter and Uranus have been in conjunction in the very early degrees of Aries. And this forms a T-square to the Sun-Pluto opposition in the Federal Reserve Board chart (created December 23, 1913). The Fed and the financial products it affects through its decisions (such as Treasuries) are thus akin to a “bubble.”

 Many astrologers were baffled that the astrological midsection of the Cardinal Climax did not produce any spectacular events, such as another financial crisis or political overthrow, or start of a new world war. Yet this simply demonstrates a lesson in how astrology works. It is not “causal” in terms of human activity, although it may be causal in terms of natural phenomenon, such as the severe heat and dryness that led to the fires and drought in Russia, and the floods that displaced hundreds of thousands in China and Pakistan.

 Astrology correlated to human activity is more “synchronistic” than causal. In the thoughts of the great Swiss psychologist and astrologer Carl Jung, “Every moment of time has its own unique quality, and whatever is born in that moment takes on that quality.” So as I approach the study of astrology, it is not from the viewpoint of predicting an event related to the meaning of each planet and sign. I am more interested in “what is born in that moment” in which an unusual cosmic pattern unfolds. To me, that is the key to understanding what the outcome will be.

 As I see it, there were at least three important economic and mundane policies and decisions that were “birthed” in the July 21-August 21 Cardinal Climax midsection. And those decisions commence the cycles that will soon grow into something transformative regarding our economic future. In fact, they have already begun. As I stated in the Forecast 2010 Book, the year 2010 may be the most important year of our collective life as seen from the study of astrology. We have choices going into the summer of 2010. But by then, the choices will have been made and it will be very difficult to turn back the consequences that those choices will generate.

 What were those choices and how do they relate to astrology? The first was the Financial Regulatory Reform Act of July 21, which took place as Saturn entered Libra, and with Jupiter and Uranus opposite in Aries. Each of these transits squared the USA Venus and Jupiter. Venus and Jupiter are the “money” planets, and this can be a classical bankruptcy aspect related to spending more than one can afford. And then on August 10, the Federal Reserve Board decided to abandon its pre-announced plan of an “exit strategy” by drawing down its balance sheet. Instead it decided to reflate its portfolio by resuming purchases of long-term Treasuries. It did this as Jupiter was stationary, in exact square to Pluto (an aspect of holding too much debt), forming a T-square to the Fed’s Sun-Pluto opposition. When Jupiter is involved in these kinds of aspects, there can be a tendency to misjudge via over-estimation and exaggeration. That’s the astrological perspective, as I see it. Decisions were made and there will be consequences that will grow out of these new initiatives, and they will have an impact upon life as we know it, for better or worse, per the dynamics of the most potent line up of geocosmic signatures in our lifetime. As above, so below.

 The third decision that was made during this period occurred last Saturday, August 21. That was when Russia loaded the rods for a nuclear reactor in Iran. It was on the day of Saturn square Pluto, but also still at the beginning of the 78-year period when the progressed Mars in the USA chart has turned retrograde. Mars rules one’s military outlook. If anyone says that the heart of the Cardinal Climax was a non-event, I beg to differ. I believe it was every bit as important as financial astrologers throughout the world expected. And the markets are reflecting this.

We are now accepting orders for the Forecast 2011 book now via phone (1-248-626-3034), fax (1-248-538-5296), email (, or through our shopping cart online ( We are pleased to announce the price will remain the same as last year. That is $55.00 if ordered after October 31, and $45.00 if ordered before (plus postage). We will also be offering special 10% discount rate for our subscription services to those who also pre-order Forecast 2011. This is a great deal, for in the words of one of our daily subscribers recently, “I don't know whether you want to hear/take any comments at all but I wanted to say that, so far, I am a very happy camper and the only thing which I think that I did wrong with subscribing to your service that I did it TOO LATE! What was I thinking....? :-)" – R. Rood, Lugano, Switzerland, futures trader and technical analyst, former cash grain trader.

For a review of the forecasts from the Forecast 2010 book, please go to, and scroll down to about the third or fourth article on the opening screen. Or go directly to

If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, call our offices at 1-248-626-3034, or go to In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report.  I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.” Order now with the Forecast 2011 Book and receive a special 10% rate reduction on these services through October.

The monthly MMA Cycles Report and its companions – the MMA Japan Cycles Report and MMA European Cycles Report – went out last week. If you are a subscriber and did not receive it, contact us at once. This report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The new MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only. These reports are included in the Japanese, German, and Dutch translated MMA Cycles Report respectively. New yearly (or renewing) subscribers to these reports will receive a free copy of the Forecast 2010 book while supplies last (see below). You also qualify for a special discount on a yearly subscription if at the same time you pre-order Forecast 2011. For subscription information, please go to SERVICES at

CD’s DVD’s, and MP3’s of the July 11 webcast are now available!!! Each of these various ways to see the event can now be ordered via our website at (just click the opening banner), or by calling 1-248-3034 or email operations at The cost of each is $45.00, plus postage if necessary. This webcast covered our outlook for stocks, precious metals, interest rates and Treasuries, foreign currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. Dollar, and Grains. We pick this time because it was right before the astrological midpoint of the Cardinal Climax, which is taking place now. It may be the peak of the huge trend reversals expected in many of these markets, aided and abetted by major changes of trend in geopolitical matters. It is interesting to see how the stocks, grains and currencies moved right up into this time band, as outlined in this presentation. You won’t want to miss this. Order now, because most of the trading opportunities presented are in effect mainly from July 21 through October 8, 2010!!! is holding a three-day video conference on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, October 1st, 2nd, and 3, 2010. This pioneering Internet astrological conference features dozens of internationally known speakers.  Very economically priced, all participants have access to all live broadcasts with the ability to replay them from the archives for up to three months. Call (212) 929-4507 or email

I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won’t manage other people’s money. That is especially true now with the uncertainty in the market place as of late. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one’s portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to our services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O’Neill of Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at, or 1-(303) 247-0600. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. Both are very knowledgeable of the tools I use, of the way I am looking at markets, and yet each makes their own decisions as exactly when to enter and exit any market. I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded the “Best in-house fund of funds” in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner’s funds, please contact him through


OK. You’ve asked about classes in Financial Astrology, and I am giving two of them in great South American cities in late September and early October. Since these constitute “investment education,” many of you will be able to write the expenses of this trip off (travel, some meals, and cost of conferences). Here are some more details of each – and I hope to see many subscribers at each:

September 23-26, 2010: Buenos Aires! Seminar on Financial and Mundane Astrology with Raymond Merriman and others, with special emphasis on Argentina’s Merval Index and precious metals and whatever else is of interest to participants, for each Financial Astrology workshop is different. For more information, contact Claudia Rizzi at, or visit our web site at If you only speak Spanish, go to We will host a special gathering of MMA Subscribers at the end of the seminar, depending on interest expressed. 

October 1-2, 2010: Rio de Janeiro! Workshop on Financial Astrology with Raymond Merriman, plus a Mundane Astrology panel with Merriman and others. The workshop will have with special emphasis on Brazil’s Bovespa Index and precious metals, and whatever else is of interest to participants. For more information, contact Renato Chebar at We may host a special gathering for MMA Subscribers on Sunday, October 3, the day of Brazil’s elections, if enough subscribers request such a meeting.

January 14-16, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. “Forecasts 2011” symposia featuring top mundane and financial astrologers, plus one day workshop on Financial Market Timing with Ray Merriman, to be followed by a special meeting with MMA Subscribers (at no cost). For more details, go to

March 10-12, 2011: Mexico City, Mexico. Speech on Forecasts 2011, and workshop on “Evolutionary Astrology: The Journey of the Soul Through States of Consciousness.” For information, please contact

April 28 and 30, 2011: Kansas City, Mo. “Forecasts for 2011” and “Financial Astrology Workshop” with Raymond Merriman. Sponsored by AOA. Details soon. This will be the next Financial Astrology workshop in the United States.

September 1-8, 2011: Bali! "Financial Astrology" Intensive workshop with Raymond Merriman, and "Mundane Astrology" with Claude Weiss. For more information on this unique week-long intensive and incredible South Pacific paradise adventure, please go to

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007-2010; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

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