Raymond Merriman has warned of a bond bubble for a while, and last week about quick movements and a roller coaster ride - guess we got that! Treasuries (and TLT and corporate bonds like the ETF, LQD) pulled back and equities hiked up Wednesday through today. Let's see what Ray Merriman thinks may happen from here. He's got a very interesting way of interweaving economic perspective, political analysis, and market cycles with financial astrology, for a walk on the eye-opening side that's insightful and fun to read. So once again we turn to Raymond Merriman's weekly preview. His perspective on the markets, economy, and even political climate is truly unique. He always has remarkable insights to share. We'll see what he's saying in his public comments this weekend, incorporating his cycles analysis with his financial astrology for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities - for commentaries that are always fascinating. Here's Ray Merriman's set of public preview comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst MMACycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning September 6, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
In typical Mercury retrograde fashion, nothing was typical last week and prices continued to see-saw back and forth every 1-4 days, with an end-of-week notable spike to the upside. There were ample displays of market divergence throughout the week, suggesting that the markets continue to perform with “unusual uncertainty,” in the words of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. But the good news is that even with these signs of divergence, several stock indices are exhibiting bullish signs. The not-so-good news is that these bullish signals are being generated while Mercury “the Trickster” is retrograde. We can’t be certain that these normally reliable technical and pattern-recognition signals will be valid this time.
In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the Hang Seng of Hong Kong, Nikkei of Tokyo, and NIFTY of India, all sold off to a bottom on August 31-September 1. The MICEX of Moscow and All Ordinaries of Australia did not take out their lows of August 25, for a case of weekly intermarket bullish divergence. Each of these markets rallied into the end of the week, but only the Hang Seng has succeeded so far in taking out its high of August 9, during the Cardinal Climax.
In Europe, only the German DAX index took out its low of August 25. It formed a new weekly low on August 31. Each of the European indices then rallied sharply into the end of the week, but only the FTSE of London made a higher high than its peak of early August (Cardinal Climax). So we have a case of intermarket bullish divergence on the lows, and possibly a case of intermarket bearish divergence developing on the highs of last week.
In the Americas, all, the equity indices held their lows of August 25-26. However the Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite came very close to those lows again on August 31 before reversing sharply to the upside. So far none of these indices has exceeded their highs of early August when the Cardinal Climax was in full force.
So, from the viewpoint of Financial Astrology, what was so important about those lows of August 31 or September 1? That was the middle of the Mercury retrograde time band of August 20-September 12. One of our rules is that markets which do not reverse their trend around the date of Mercury retrograde, will oftentimes undergo a strong but brief counter-trend reversal in the middle of the retrograde zone. That happened in many of these world stock indices, which continued lower past Mercury retrograde on August 20. It may have worked the opposite way in Gold, Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen, which continued their up trend past Mercury retrograde, but experienced their highest price to date (or double top) on August 31-September 1.
The most impressive move last week may have been in Silver. From a low of 1778 on August 24, just two trading days after Mercury turned retrograde, the December contract soared to 1997 on Friday. The chart pattern in Silver looks like a very bullish breakout. But then again, this is all happening under Mercury retrograde. Can it be trusted?
Short-Term Geocosmics
This forthcoming week is interesting for many reasons to Financial Astrologers. First of all, September 4 begins a long time band, lasting through October 8, in which there will be 11 important geocosmic signatures with higher than average correspondence to reversals in many financial markets. There are no more than 5 calendar days separating any two consecutive signatures. That constitutes a “geocosmic cluster” from which critical reversal dates are determined, as reported in the studies of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.” Given that this period covers the Autumnal Equinox of September 21, this particular cluster should be significant. After all, the planets of the Cardinal Climax are in the very early degrees of cardinal signs, which are the degrees of seasonal equinoxes and solstices. They are doubly significant now.
This week is also important from the perspective of Financial Astrology because on September 8 there is a new moon, and both Venus and Jupiter change signs. Each of these can correlate to a change of values in the investment community as well as for world leaders. What was the focus of attention before, now shifts to something else. Perhaps investors wake up to the idea that investing in Treasuries at such historically low yields is – was – not such a good idea. They may tip their toes back into the water where there is more reward for well-calculated risks.
Longer-Term Thoughts
However, how confident can investors be in this economic and political climate? When the chairman of the world’s most influential central bank describes the economic future as “unusually uncertain,” who really knows what a well-calculated risk might entail? Maybe a Financial Astrologer could be helpful, for there are correlations between the planetary patterns of today with themes (and outcomes) that occurred under similar celestial patterns in the past. That is, after all, one of the values of Financial Astrology. But it does require an open-mind, something that is claimed by many, but demonstrated by few, when it comes to subject of Astrology.
But let’s consider recent events in light of basic astrological tenets, and even common sense. The Federal Reserve Board Chair makes the statement in mid-August (under the intensity of the Cardinal Climax) that the economic outlook is “unusually uncertain.” Prior to that, he had announced the Fed would trim down its balance sheet which had tripled in assets following the Panic of 2008. It had printed massive amounts of money and used that to purchase U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities. Those treasuries and securities were coming due.
Now, as a trader or investor, let me ask: if you see the outlook as “unusually uncertain,” do you normally make a decision to purchase a large amount of assets whose value will be affected by the economic climate? Or do you sit tight and wait for the picture to clear, and then make a decision where to invest your monies – or in this case, the monies of other people you serve?
Bernanke and the Fed made the decision to vary from the previous mentioned strategy. Instead of drawing down the Fed balance sheet, they would instead use the monies from the sales of these Treasuries and securities to buy more long-term Treasuries (but not more mortgage backed securities). The question is: was that a wise decision, given that the market was viewed as “unusually uncertain,” and also given that the Cardinal Climax planets were forming a grand square to the Sun-Pluto opposition of the FRB chart (December 23, 1913, 6:02 PM, Washington D.C., source New York Times)? Or will there be unforeseen consequences later on this decision of further stimulus, further manipulation and interference with the normal market climate? From the viewpoint of Financial Astrology, I would be concerned about the wisdom of this decision.
To me, this decision does nothing to address the problem of the out-of-control federal debt. To the contrary, it gives support to the government’s urge to continue with $1 trillion + budget deficits. In his more wise moments (and he has had many of them, in my opinion), Bernanke has warned Congress and the White House numerous times that they need to address and bring down the federal deficit. Why does he warn the government of the need to seriously tackle the federal deficit and ballooning debt? From a Financial Astrology viewpoint, it is because the U.S.A. is going bankrupt. Pluto and Uranus (in early Cardinal signs, with Jupiter) are forming a T-square to the USA Venus-Jupiter conjunction in early Cancer. These are classical bankruptcy signatures, which simply mean there is the temptation to spend more than one can afford, and then the debt gets out of control – unless one takes measures of austerity to prevent that from happening. By deciding to resume buying long-term Treasuries, the Fed is enabling the never-ending spending addiction of Congress and the White House. At some point (very soon, I think), there will be consequences directly related to this inability and unwillingness to control spending.
Why is this important? Simple: the Fed is hastening the day of sovereign default which, in truth, will be caused more by the betrayal of our political leaders as fiduciary managers of our nation’s finances than by the Fed itself. It is no longer a matter of IF the United States will default, but rather WHEN and HOW it will default, and what that will do to the U.S. Dollar in terms of its special status as the world’s reserve currency, which in turn lets the Fed freely print more and more dollars as it sees necessary. What happens when that changes?
But don’t despair and lose sleep over this. The possibility of default is not just an American phenomenon. The entire world is on the verge of default (well, a great portion of it is). After all, Pluto in Capricorn squared by Jupiter and Uranus in Aries (now late Pisces) affects every one. We are all in this together, and it is the dynamic that is going to lead to a whole new era of shared sacrifices and changes in governance and banking throughout the world. It has already started, as we are now fully into the Cardinal Climax of 2008-2015, and in fact we have just passed through the Astrological center of this cosmic tsunami. There is something cleansing that occurs after such an ordeal. That’s the promise of Pluto in Capricorn, 2008-2023.
As you might expect, the idea of sovereign default, bankruptcy, and a bubble in the U.S. Treasury market is not a view shared by everyone, and certainly not by those who are the frantic buyers of U.S. debt right now. It is possible that my read of this possibility is incorrect because as Bernanke says, the outlook is “unusually uncertain.” It depends upon how much you trust your government and its leaders – their intentions as well as their level of competency to manage the nation’s finances. Here are two interesting links that outline the two sides to this discussion.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-25/morgan-stanley-says-government-bond-default-is-question-of-how-not-if-.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-on-the-bond-bubble-2010-8
Announcements
We are now accepting orders for the Forecast 2011 book now via phone (1-248-626-3034), fax (1-248-538-5296), email (ordersmma@msn.com), or through our shopping cart online (www.mmacycles.com). We are pleased to announce the price will remain the same as last year. That is $55.00 if ordered after October 31, and $45.00 if ordered before (plus postage). We will also be offering special 10% discount rate for our subscription services to those who also pre-order Forecast 2011. This is a great deal, for in the words of one of our daily subscribers recently, “I don't know whether you want to hear/take any comments at all but I wanted to say that, so far, I am a very happy camper and the only thing which I think that I did wrong with subscribing to your service that I did it TOO LATE! What was I thinking....? :-)" – R. Rood, Lugano, Switzerland, futures trader and technical analyst, former cash grain trader.
For a review of the forecasts from the Forecast 2010 book, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down to about the third or fourth article on the opening screen. Or go directly to http://www.mmacycles.com/the-news/about-mma/scorecard-for-forecasts-2010/.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.” Order now with the Forecast 2011 Book and receive a special 10% rate reduction through October.
CD’s DVD’s, and MP3’s of the July 11 webcast are now available!!! Each of these various ways to see the event can now be ordered via our website at www.mmacycles.com (just click the opening banner), or by calling 1-248-3034 or email operations at ordersmma@msn.com. The cost of each is $45.00, plus postage if necessary. This webcast covered our outlook for stocks, precious metals, interest rates and Treasuries, foreign currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. Dollar, and Grains. We pick this time because it was right before the astrological midpoint of the Cardinal Climax, which is taking place now. It may be the peak of the huge trend reversals expected in many of these markets, aided and abetted by major changes of trend in geopolitical matters. It is interesting to see how the stocks, grains and currencies moved right up into this time band, as outlined in this presentation. You won’t want to miss this. Order now, because most of the trading opportunities presented are in effect mainly from July 21 through October 8, 2010!!!
ForumOnAstrology.com is holding a three-day video conference on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, October 1-3, 2010. This pioneering Internet astrological conference features dozens of internationally known speakers. Very economically priced, all participants have access to all live broadcasts with the ability to replay them from the archives for up to three months. Call (212) 929-4507 or email Inquiries@ForumOnAstrology.com.
I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won’t manage other people’s money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one’s portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to MMA services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O’Neill of Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 247-0600. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded the “Best in-house fund of funds” in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner’s funds, you may contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.
OK. You’ve asked about classes in Financial Astrology, and I am giving two in great South American cities in September and early October. Since these constitute “investment education,” many of you will be able to write the expenses of this trip off (travel, some meals, and cost of conferences). Here are some more details – and I hope to see many subscribers at each:
September 23-26, 2010: Buenos Aires! Seminar on Financial and Mundane Astrology with Raymond Merriman and others, with special emphasis on Argentina’s Merval Index and precious metals and whatever else is of interest to participants, for each Financial Astrology workshop is different. For more information, contact Claudia Rizzi at astrologycr@gmail.com, or visit our web site at www.mmacycles-spanish.com. If you only speak Spanish, go to www.astrologiamundana2010.blogspot.com. We will host a special gathering of MMA Subscribers at the end of the seminar, depending on interest expressed.
October 1-2, 2010: Rio de Janeiro! Workshop on Financial Astrology with Raymond Merriman, plus a Mundane Astrology panel with Merriman and others. The workshop will have with special emphasis on Brazil’s Bovespa Index and precious metals, and whatever else is of interest to participants. For more information, contact Renato Chebar at astrologiafinanceira@gmail.com. We may host a special gathering for MMA Subscribers on Sunday, October 3, the day of Brazil’s elections, if enough subscribers request such a meeting.
January 14-16, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. “Forecasts 2011” symposia featuring top mundane and financial astrologers, plus one day workshop on Financial Market Timing with Ray Merriman, to be followed by a special meeting with MMA Subscribers (at no cost). For more details, go to www.astrodata.ch.
March 10-12, 2011: Mexico City, Mexico. Speech on Forecasts 2011, and workshop on “Evolutionary Astrology: The Journey of the Soul Through States of Consciousness.” For information, please contact acuario888@gmail.com.
April 28 and 30, 2011: Kansas City, Mo. “Forecasts for 2011” and “Financial Astrology Workshop” with Raymond Merriman. Sponsored by AOA. Details soon. This will be the next Financial Astrology workshop in the United States.
September 1-8, 2011: Bali! "Financial Astrology" Intensive workshop with Raymond Merriman, and "Mundane Astrology" with Claude Weiss. For more information on this unique week-long intensive and incredible South Pacific paradise adventure, please go to http://www.heavenandearthworkshops.com/financial.html.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2010; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
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