Pay attention folks: we've seen Andre Gratian turn bullish in his Turning Points weeks ago, then Tony Caldaro confirm bullishness with his Objective Elliott Wave. Now Raymond Merriman is putting out an important alert about his changed, bullish view of the stock market's current cycle. I've already said that Fibonacci levels are being pushed in a way that really tests this. While we're still thinking a low into the day(s) immediately following next Friday's opex, we've also talked another high level in early or mid-November and I've pointed out if that pokes new highs for the year that'll be quite bullish. Raymond Merriman's update this evening contains an important re-analysis of his cycles pointing to a high early next year. I can't determine yet how this may (or not) reconcile with Terry Laundry's T Theory (which I also like very much, and which talks about downward after the 2nd week in November) .... But clearly the market is resilient ... So read on!
For those who may not be as familiar with Ray's work, we appreciate it because his perspective on the market cycles, economy, and even political climate is truly unique. He always has remarkable insights to share. We'll see what he's saying in his public comments this weekend, incorporating his cycles analysis with his financial astrology for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities - for commentaries that are always fascinating. Here's Ray Merriman's set of public preview comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst MMACycles Weekly Preview Comments:
=============
MMA Comments for the Week Beginning October 11, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman
Introductory Comments
We are now approaching the end of the powerful September 4-October 8 time band of eleven important geocosmic signatures. The most important were the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction of September 18, Sun-Jupiter opposition of September 21, and the Venus retrograde of October 8. All of these are Level One signatures, as discussed in the studies of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.” A Level One signature has an historical correlation of at least 67% to primary or greater cycles in stocks, within an orb of 12 trading days (usually much less). As noted in the introductory comments, several stock markets in Europe made their cycle highs on September 21, which was the midpoint of this time band. Others were making new highs at the end of last week, as the Libra new moon and Venus retrograde signatures unfolded (October 7-8). On Monday, the two-day Sagittarius Factor unfolds, which can result in a spillover of the trend from the end of last week. But it is a powerful mutable lunar cycle, so reversals can also commence then.
Review and Preview
First of all, I would like to thank all readers and subscribers in Argentina and Brazil who made my recent trip such a success. It was exciting to be in Buenos Aires as their Merval Index soared to new all-time highs, and in Rio de Janeiro, where the current run up in that country’s Bovespa equity index is at its highest level since April.
Since our last column two weeks ago, equity prices around the world have continued their strong rallies which started in late August. In Asia and the Pacific Rim, multi-month highs were noted in all indices we follow. The stellar performer, however, was the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, which on Friday raced above 23,000, its highest level since November 2009.
In Europe, the London FTSE also soared to new multi-month highs, hitting 5707 on Thursday’s new moon. This took out it prior high of 5635 on September 21, but not its yearly high of 5833 on April 16. However, neither the Amsterdam AEX, German DAX, nor Zurich SMI indices took out their highs of September 21, thus setting up a potential case of intermarket bearish divergence as Venus turns retrograde. Russia’s MIXEX index did take out the September 21 highs, similar to the FTSE.
In the Americas, the4 Merval index of Argentina made a new all time high last week, and Brazil’s Bovespa soared to a new 6-month high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed above the 11,000 mark on Friday for the first time since early May. The NASDAQ Composite briefly went above 2400, something it also barely accomplished on September 30 and October 5.
Last week was significant for precious metals and currencies too. On October 7, Gold made a new all-time high at 1366, while Silver peaked at 2356, its highest level since the heady days of 1980. The culprit for this move was the collapsing U.S. Dollar, which fell to a new all-time low against the Swiss Franc, and another 15-year low against the Japanese Yen.
Short-Term Geocosmics
We are now approaching the end of the powerful September 4-October 8 time band of eleven important geocosmic signatures. The most important were the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction of September 18, Sun-Jupiter opposition of September 21, and the Venus retrograde of October 8. All of these are Level One signatures, as discussed in the studies of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.” A Level One signature has an historical correlation of at least 67% to primary or greater cycles in stocks, within an orb of 12 trading days (usually much less). As noted in the introductory comments, several stock markets in Europe made their cycle highs on September 21, which was the midpoint of this time band. Others were making new highs at the end of last week, as the Libra new moon and Venus retrograde signatures unfolded (October 7-8). On Monday, the two-day Sagittarius Factor unfolds, which can result in a spillover of the trend from the end of last week. But it is a powerful mutable lunar cycle, so reversals can also commence then.
For Financial Astrologers, however, the most important factor happening right now is Venus turning retrograde in Scorpio, and its conjunction to Mars, also in Scorpio. Venus pertains to currency and assets of value. It rules Taurus, the sign of money and wealth. But Scorpio is its opposite sign, which means it is in its “fall” here. It is weaker. The desire to appreciate one’s net worth is Venus and Taurus. But Scorpio and its ruler Mars pertain to the accumulation of debt. For some reason, the USA Dollar has a tendency to go down when Mars is in Scorpio, and precious metals tend to rise sharply. It is happening again.
But Venus retrograde is a powerful reversal signature all by itself. Historically it has a higher correlation to primary cycle crests than troughs, although the last time it occurred was March 6, 2009, which was exactly the day of the 72-year cycle trough in the DJIA. Every fifth Venus retrograde happens in the same part of the zodiac, and that occurs every 8 years. The last Venus retrograde to take place in mid-Scorpio was on October 10, 2002, the exact date of the 4-year cycle trough that ended the bear market after the dot com bubble. This time it is not a trough (low in price). If it is to correlate with a reversal, it will be from a primary cycle crest, since prices of many indices are at or near their highest levels since the lows of May 20-July 6, depending on which index you look at. If the market doesn’t reverse here, than this becomes one of the 22% cases. That is, the historical rate of frequency for a major reversal here is 78%. How far and how long such a reversal might be in effect depends upon many factors that we will discuss in this week’s MMA Cycles Report. But for now, let’s just remember that in the past, there are instances when a high around the new moon of Libra would be followed by a sharp decline to the full moon two weeks later. And that happens along with Venus turning retrograde. Watch for signs of changing economic, monetary, and/or fiscal policies, which will spur changes in price direction.
Longer-Term Thoughts
I was wrong. Yes, I know it doesn’t happen too often, but when it does happen, it is already too often. It is the curse of every market analyst. You look at charts, you look at your numbers, and you are aware of the probabilities because you have done your homework and formal research studies. And you go with the probabilities that are at least 80% based on historical instances. But every so often, the less than 20% probability is the one that happens. And when the scenario you expected in fact does not happen, you have to start considering that the opposite is happening. Or else you are under a Uranus aspect, in which case no matter what you predict, it will not happen quite as you thought.
So here I am – master financial analyst, master Financial Astrologer, master cycles analyst and legend in his own mind – quite convinced that stock markets are headed down to a longer-term cycle low due at the end of this year. After all, that low on July 2. 2010, was too late to be a 50-week cycle trough as measured from March 6, 2009. It was 69 weeks, and only 8% of historical cases saw the 50-week cycle bottom later than 67 weeks. Who would choose to go with an 8% probability? The 50-week cycle had to be that low of February 5 (48th week). That meant that this was a newer 50-week cycle, and it would not be due to bottom until after September 2010, which was just right for several other longer-term cycles that were due. But the 8% probability did happen. Did I ever mention the trap of arrogance or dogmatism to market traders?
So there I am, trading and positioning my own portfolio as if we are in the last phase of an older 50-week cycle, when actually we are in the first phase of a newer one. For those of you unfamiliar with cycle studies, this is significant. The last phase of a cycle is almost always bearish. It is the most bearish part of a cycle that has been bullish. The first phase of a cycle is almost always bullish. Your strategy in the last phase of cycle is much different than in the first phase. In the last phase, you strategy is to sell rallies. In the first phase, your strategy is to buy dips. That’s the mechanics of a cycles’ analyst and trader.
But what about Financial Astrology? What did it say about this past summer? As expressed in the Forecast 2010 book, my bias was that the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction of late May and early June would commence an extremely speculative market environment, in which assets (like stocks and Gold) would be vulnerable to very sharp rallies. This was to be “asset inflation gone wild.” Based on the Jupiter cycle over the past 140+ years, the stock market was expected to soar into early 2011 (see Forecast 2010 book). But that didn’t happen immediately after Jupiter and Uranus entered Aries, which are all speculative dynamics. It didn’t really start until late August. Why then and not late May – early June? Well, now we come to the part about Financial Astrology that provides a learning experience – for me and all Financial Astrologers. We are all students.
The market didn’t take off from late May-early June when the wild and speculative combination of Jupiter and Uranus entered the impulsive fire sign of Aries, because at the same time Saturn was in opposition to that Jupiter-Uranus in Aries (and all squared Pluto in Capricorn). Saturn pertains to the principles of “fear and restriction.” Fear entered the market community as investors sought the safety of U.S. treasuries, and not stocks, which are more speculative. And the hard aspects from Saturn transits didn’t end until…. August 21. And then the explosion in assets like stocks and precious metals began. Investors did, after all, leave the paltry yields offered from Treasuries, for the more robust growth exhibited in stocks and metals, just as forecasted, only about two months later and right after Saturn began its separation from the midsection of the Cardinal Climax.
Now that Saturn is out of the picture of aspecting Jupiter and Uranus until March 2011, there is really little that I see in Financial Astrology to stop the asset inflation bandwagon – other than perhaps a few weeks of correction during Venus retrograde. In the meantime, I lick my wounds for treating this as the last phase (bearish) of a longer-term cycle when it is clear now that it is the first phase (bullish) of a newer cycle. Unfortunately, I – as a mere mortal – have cycles too. Fortunately, as a mere mortal who tries to learn from past experiences, I don’t put my life style at risk in the market place. And I make the necessary adjustments once I see the light (unless it blinds me). Arrogance and fixed mindedness are, in the end, killers for successful trading.
Now if the central bankers and politicians could also learn from long term cycles of the past that have now returned, and if they could also see the light and get their foot unstuck from the accelerator of rampant spending and never-ending stimulus, we might come out of this economic “twilight zone.” Why does this investment climate remind me so much of the late 1990’s and the dot com bubble? Let’s ask that question again in the first part of 2010. Until then, enjoy this ride, despite the bad news and despite the negative election campaigning. The market will like these “walls of worry” to climb, especially now that Saturn has moved on his way and stops pushing things down.
In the meantime, Federal regulators closed Shoreline Bank in Washington this past week, the 129th bank to fail this year. It’s closing in on last year’s record 140 bank closings.
Announcements
The monthly MMA Cycles Report and its companions – the MMA Japan Cycles Report and MMA European Cycles Report – will come out this week, Monday and Tuesday, via posting on our web site, and attachment via direct emails, for subscribers. This report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The new MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only. These reports are included in the Japanese, German, and Dutch translated MMA Cycles Report respectively. New yearly (or renewing) subscribers to these reports will receive a free copy of the Forecast 2010 book while supplies last (see below). You can also qualify for a special discount on a yearly subscription if at the same time you Purchase the 2011 Forecast Book.
Three weeks remaining to reserve a copy of the Forecast 2011 book at the special pre-publication price! We are pleased to announce no changes in the special pre-publication rate at $45.00 if ordered before October 31 (plus postage – same as last year). After that, $55.00. We are also offering a special 10% discount rate for our subscription services to those who pre-order Forecast 2011 before October 31. This is a great deal, for in the words of one of our daily subscribers recently, “I don't know whether you want to hear/take any comments at all but I wanted to say that, so far, I am a very happy camper and the only thing which I think that I did wrong with subscribing to your service that I did it TOO LATE! What was I thinking....? :-)" – R. Rood, Lugano, Switzerland, futures trader and technical analyst, former cash grain trader.
The Forecast 2011 Book can be pre-ordered in several languages, at attractive pre-publication rates, through the following MMA publishers, which also publish our free weekly columns in their respective languages:
Chinese: at http://www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl
German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/
Japanese: at http://merriman.jp
Russian: at http://www.urania.ru/
Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com
And now we have a special first-time opportunity being developed. This year’s Forecast Book will be available in electronic book format. The details are still being worked out, but we expect to have this format available this year, also around December 15. This will be a great feature for our overseas readers, for now they will be able to save on the high postage costs, and be assured that the copy of their book will actually arrive (on line), something that the U.S. postal service has not been very adept at these past few years (they lose or cause unacceptably long delays in receipt of about 10% of the books we ship overseas,).
For a review of the forecasts from the Forecast 2010 book, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down to about the third or fourth article on the opening screen. Or go directly to http://www.mmacycles.com/the-news/about-mma/scorecard-for-forecasts-2010/.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.” Order now with the Forecast 2011 Book and receive a special 10% rate reduction through October.
I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won’t manage other people’s money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one’s portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to MMA services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O’Neill of Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 247-0600. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded the “Best in-house fund of funds” in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner’s funds, you may contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.
January 14-16, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. “Forecasts 2011” symposia featuring top mundane and financial astrologers, plus one day workshop on Financial Market Timing with Ray Merriman, to be followed by a special meeting with MMA Subscribers (at no cost). For more details, go to www.astrodata.ch.
April 28 and 30, 2011: Kansas City, Mo. “Forecasts for 2011” and “Financial Astrology Workshop” with Raymond Merriman. Sponsored by AOA. Details soon. This will be the next Financial Astrology workshop in the United States.
September 1-8, 2011: Bali! "Financial Astrology" Intensive workshop with Raymond Merriman, and "Mundane Astrology" with Claude Weiss. For more information on this unique week-long intensive and incredible South Pacific paradise adventure, please go to http://www.heavenandearthworkshops.com/financial.html.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2010; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
Archives
Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com
For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:
Chinese : www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
Japanese : www.merriman.jp
Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl (Polska)
Russian : www.urania.ru
Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment