Stock market possibly cresting before October 25 Bradley model "turn date" window

Various stock market analysts refer to the Bradley "cycles" siderograph model from time to time, and there's another "turn date" time window approaching so let's review it. The most important thing to know about the Bradley model is that the identified dates are not necessarily market highs or lows, but dates when the market is likely to turn. Also be aware, the turn might only be temporary! Finally, some of the turn dates are more important than others. The October 25 date is not one of the important ones so its effects are more likely to be muted. Also, the dates are considered to operate within plus or minus 7 days. So looking back, we might even have a debate about whether it produces a low or a high! Well, this one does have some likelihood of being a low. I say this because the October 18-20 time frame is mentioned as a probable low by "Parker B" (@PositionSizing) whose good technical analysis is being posted sometimes now by Terry Laundry at Terry's T Theory website (http://www.ttheory.com/, see link in the sites list at right), on the basis of studying advance/decline data. And Andre Gratian whose Market Turning Points updates are featured here regularly (see his site also, in the list at right, and his update posted here Monday evening) has identified a cycle low expected to occur next week too. So this gives me more confidence to point out this Bradley turn date time window as well.

I've written about the Bradley model several times before, including in this post: Stock market cycles on Bradley model: how to use and not use this forecasting info (11/24/09); use the "Cycles on Bradley model" to see prior posts referring to this model. One of the most avid Bradley model cycles analysts is Manfred Zimmel, who writes about it at his http://www.amanita.at/ website. Manfred publishes a public version (see below), but don't rely on it too heavily - he also publishes an elite version (in which he incorporates his own refinements) that must be paid for and clearly Manfred feels his own proprietary version is better.* I sure hope so, because the public version doesn't map out a good stock market forecast, even though the turn dates do typically correspond to SOME kind of a stock market turn!

*I will tell you, that back in the March 2009 time frame, Manfred was calling for a magnificant stock market rally to last a long time. Okay - he was right!!

Manfred has also commented at least once, that his public version may work better for the oil price. Well, once again I don't know that we can rely on that for future forecasting purposes - but it is interesting to consider, at least if you're trading oil futures or ETF's (or maybe oil companies).

So, now you know a few things about this mysterious "Bradley model" that people talk about, and click that link to my prior post to research more information about it. Above all, please don't take the graphic depiction (copyright Manfred Zimmel, below) as a forecast - just be aware of the turn dates, and that any turns might only last a relatively short amount of time. The November 15-16 turn date will be more significant, as Manfred marked it in bold. Regular readers of this blog know that's a time frame we're interested in because of Terry Laundry's T Theory (tm) work currently suggesting a crest in the November 6-10 time frame. While there are others (including recently Raymond Merriman) thinking the market will march higher into March 2011, it's possible the market will indeed crest in early-to-mid-November. And then we'll see whether or not it can recover afterward to move higher or if that'll be that.

Speaking of the time frame into early/mid-November, here's another chart I marked up, it's the Dow Jones Industrial Average and I posted it earlier this evening at my UBTNB3 blog at this post: Cyclicality in Dow Jones Industrials. I won't repeat everything about it here, you can click that link to see what I'm saying about it. The chart below says some of it - there's a certain rough periodicity that looks like it may go along with that early/mid-November time frame: