Crude oil may test up again before looking for lower support levels: Fibonacci analysis

Here's a quick chart analysis of crude oil ($WTIC) using Fibonacci analysis on my daily and monthly charts (below). When it hit the high recently from which it dropped, that high tested just two cents above the 70.7% retracement to the all-time high (so far) of $147.90. Meaning it went to $114.88 which is just two cents above that 70.7% retracement level at $114.86. Frankly, it does raise the spectre that the entire rally from $35.13 was merely a "wave 2" upward and that oil will fall spectacularly again in a hugh wave 3 swoon.* Hmmm ... we'll see about that. Meanwhile, it's reasonable to expect it to test upward again to the 61.8% retracement level about $105. If we see that, then our plan is to sell it again and look for a retest about the $91 to $92 level which was the 50% retracement level.

Conversely, if it first drops to the $91-92 area, then we can play a long-side bounce and look for a move up to $105. These levels mark a range within which our plan is to trade it by buying the lower end of that range, and selling the higher end of that range, until it shows that it's ready to trend away above (or below) those levels.

These are Fibonacci levels which I've marked onto my daily and weekly charts. If it loses $91-91, then it could even test as low as $75 although I'm not thinking right now that's so likely. There's also support about the $85 level, but first we'll have to see if it even falls under its still-rising 200-day moving average!

*The 70.7% retracement level is a common retrace amount for an Elliott Wave 2nd-wave pullback. It implies that a 3rd-wave move will come, moving beyond the extent of the first wave. In this case, it would imply that $WTIC would reach a level underneath $35.13. Honestly that idea is out of step with most respectable analysis that I follow. So I cannot seriously advocate it. Let's just keep it in mind in case we see crude oil lose the $91-92 support, then the $85 support too. We'll take it one step at a time. Elliott Wave analysts will understand what I mean, when I say that the thrust to $147.90 looks to me potentially like a 5th-wave thrust from a multi-year historical triangle ... so this bearish idea isn't entirely impossible, even though it is improbable. A move over $115 would negate this bearish idea, and pave the way for a test of the 78.6% retrace area of $123 in $WTIC.