MMA Comments for the Week Beginning July 25, 2011
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
After falling to intermediate-term cycle lows early last week, July 18-19, most equity markets around the world rallied sharply to close the week in positive territory. The stimulus for the rally was the new Greek bailout plan. Prior to that announcement, European stocks were reeling. The Swiss SMI index fell to 5813 last Monday, in lowest price in about two years. By Friday it had rallied sharply to 6095. The Netherlands AEX index plummeted to 323 early last week, it lowest level since September 1, 2010, but rebounded smartly to test the 340 area by Friday. The German DAX and London FTSE also rallied from their weekly lows Monday-Tuesday to close the week modestly higher. Neither of them fell below the lows of June, however, for a case on regional intermarket bullish divergence.
In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the lows of the week fell on Tuesday, July 19. The Australian All Ordinaries fell to 4515 that day, a double, bottom to its recent low of 4508 registered on our three-star critical reversal date of June 27. It closed the week sharply higher at 4674. The Nikkei of Japan continued its climb upward from a low of 9318 on June 16, and its earthquake-tsunami disaster low of 8227 in mid-March. By Friday, July 22, it was up to 10,149. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong ended its decline at 21,611 on July 19, and by Friday it was up to 22,449.
The American indices saw their weekly lows on Monday of last week. In South America, modest rallies followed into the end of the week. The 58,630 low in Brazil's Bovespa index last Monday was its lowest mark since May 2010. The Merval of Argentina was rather quiet with no new highs or lows to note, but the pattern of making its low in the early part of the week and closing higher by Friday was intact. In the United States, the rally was much stronger. From a major cycle trough at 12,296 last Monday, July 18, the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned around abruptly. By Thursday it was up to 12,751, just 125 points from a new three-year high. The pattern was similar in the NASDAQ Composite. I don't know if the rally was in sympathy to the agreements in the Euro zone concerning Greece, or favorable quarterly earnings reports, or the abundance of rumors that a deal on the U.S. debt ceiling limit was imminent. It's not, but investors still act like it is.
What was so important about last Monday and Tuesday, July 18-19? It was a solar-lunar reversal zone, according to the studies presented in "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Reversals." True to form, the decline ended then and equities world-wide reversed upwards. But then another solar-lunar-reversal zone was in force July 20-22. Stock prices rose into that one. Now we wait and see if that lunar reversal zone leads to lower prices in the next couple of trading days.
The biggest star last week was Gold, which soared above 1600 for the first time ever. Silver also climbed back above 4000. If the rally in U.S. stocks is based upon an optimistic resolution to the debt, the rally in precious metals is more likely based on the concern that the U.S.A. will not come to a favorable solution to reign in the very same debt bomb that threatens the U.S. credit standing and the integrity of its currency, the U.S. Dollar. In fact, the U.S. Dollar index fell well below 75.00 again as other currencies soared against it. The Japanese Yen continues to flirt with a new all-time high, and the Swiss Franc is still trading near its all-time high recorded the previous week.
What is it going to take to protect the ever-plunging U.S. Dollar? Evidently some kind of policy that is not in force today. We may get a glimpse of what that is in August, based on geocosmics, specifically the transit of Mars into Cancer.
Short-Term Geocosmics
The wild and wicked transit of heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius started last week. It coincided with the low in stocks (July 18-19) and the rallies around the world that started then. Sagittarius is an optimistic sign, and Mercury rules communication, so it was perhaps not a surprise that investors were looking for any reason to buy. They got not one, but as many as three possible reasons last week, none of which is based upon anything more than hope. The bailout of Greece is far from certain to be a permanent solution. The rumors regarding an impending agreement to raise the debt ceiling in the USA is anything but certain, and the only proposals that have any possibility of substantially reducing the nation's debt can't find agreement between the Republican-led House of Representatives and the Democratic-controlled Senate. The White House has been totally absent in offering any serious proposal of its own, but demanding that others solve the problem, or else. Or else what? Or else seniors will not receive their social security checks, and men in uniform will not be paid, or so we are told. But is that true, or is that just the exaggeration side of Sagittarius speaking through Mercury? And as long as there are planets in fire signs like Sagittarius, there will be hope – or hysteria when reality ends up contradicting that hope.
And speaking of fire signs, the earth is now beginning the month of Leo, yet another fire sign. Leo is supposed to represent leadership, so maybe the White House will pull something together yet. President Barack Obama is indeed a Leo. But on his birthday this year, August 4, Mercury will be just starting its retrograde motion. We may have more to say about next week, for the position of planets on the day of one's birthday is a harbinger of what to expect for the next year. It is known as one's solar return. You may remember last year that the president's birthday fell right in the middle of the extremely challenging Cardinal Climax. I think it is safe to say (but maybe politically incorrect) that the past year has been an extremely challenging one for the president, starting with the mid-term elections of November 2010 in which he lost control of the House. I am not so sure this year's solar return will be any less challenging, as Mars will start its grand square to the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto trio that defines the Cardinal Climax.
Another powerful time band of geocosmic signatures starts up this week, July 27, lasting through August 10. With Mars about to enter the cardinal sign of Cancer on August 3, just one day after Mercury turns retrograde (August 2-26) and the debt ceiling is scheduled to be violated, technically sending the USA into some sort of default, this could become a major Obama-drama moment. Or maybe it will, be a Federal Reserve-last nerve moment, for that Mars will cross the Fed's natal Pluto opposition Sun at 0-1 Cancer-Capricorn. I would think both U.S Treasuries and the Dollar will be impacted significantly by the potentially alarming events of this time.
Longer Term Thoughts
I get letters. Lots of letters from readers. Lately they have been about the "Asset Inflation Express" and whether I think it has truly ended now that Jupiter has advanced from Aries into Taurus. You may recall that we coincided this term back in 2009 to describe the investment climate of summer 2010 through June 4, 2011, a time that we thought the Fed's monetary would remain overly accommodative and the value of assets – like stocks and precious metals – would soar. And they did, contrary to the forecasts of most analysts at the time.
As stated several times in this column, the peak of the stock market via this particular set was due to top out when Jupiter got within 7 degrees of the Aries-Taurus border or 23 degrees of Aries through 7 degrees of Taurus. That sector of the zodiac would be occupied by Jupiter in two periods. The first was May 2 through July 22. True to its historical pattern, the stock market - as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, from the study was done over a 140 year period – topped out at 12,876 on May 3, and then tested it again at 12,753 on July 7 and 12,751 last Thursday, July 21. There is no confirming signal yet that the high has been completed, and our position trading subscribers are still long this stock market since the end of November 2010. If the market falls below the low of a former primary cycle trough, then we will have confirmation that the top is in, and in fact that the second phase of the 4-year cycle has also topped out. I expect that to happen soon.
In the meantime, should the DJIA make a new three-year high, it will point to a potential crest during the next time frame that Jupiter enters this part of the zodiac that correlates with a high. In other words, Jupiter will soon go retrograde, and while retrograde, it will return to 0 degrees of Taurus. It will be in 0-7 degrees of Taurus again October 7-2010 through March 7 2011. Whether we make a new high then or not probably depends upon what happens in Washington D.C. these next two weeks.
Announcements
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them."
The writing of "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 5: Price Objectives and Technical Analysis," is now in the hands of editors. It should be out in September as planned. It is always a surreal feeling when I complete a book of this size (over 300 pages). Like every market analyst who writers a book, I think this is the greatest one ever written. Did I ever disclose that I had Mercury in Sagittarius? Well, it is true. I am very pleased with this book and I think it is the one book that you will truly get your money's worth from purchasing. It's a book about the tools that real serious traders use, the formulas that they use to calculate price targets, and the trading plans that work using market timing and technical indicators. This book is like the markets itself: it is packed with powerful tools (signals), and if you take the time to learn these tools properly, your chances of being a successful trader will increase tremendously. The book is approximately 325 pages, printed in perfect bind format, gloss cover, 8-1/2" x 11" size. The retail price at the time of publication will be $144.00. Our offer of a pre-publication special price of $95.00 (plus postage) ends next week August 1. There will be another pre-publication offer at $125.00 starting August 1, which will remain in effect until the book is delivered to the printer, at which time the price will be set at $144.00. That is expected to happen in mid-August. This publication will complete the project that started in 1996, and covered approximately 1600 pages of studies and strategies for all types of traders and investors, using our market timing methods. In all, this is a complete and unified approach to analyzing (and trading) financial markets, and especially stock markets. If you are interested in this unique and integrated methodology for analyzing and forecasting stock indices, you can save big bucks by ordering now at http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/books/the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-5/, or just go to www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the announcement.Events
August 13, 2011: San Francisco, CA. Financial Market Timing seminar, featuring Raymond Merriman. It is on. Location is Golden Gate University. Details available at www.tsaasf.org. Immediately afterwards there will be a special meeting with MMA subscribers who make reservations with us beforehand (call 248-626-3034, or email Amber at ordersmma@msn.com). There is no charge for subscribers to attend this special meeting afterwards. Also on the program will be fellow Financial Astrologer Arch Crawford, and Gann Specialist Sinan Koray from Australia. The TSAASF has arranged special rates at the Club Quarters Hotel on Clay Street. Call 415-442-6583 for reservations. My talk will be on the "Gold and the Saturn-Pluto Cycle."
January 6-7, 2012: Zurich Switzerland. Forecast 2012 Symposia sponsored by AstroData. Details to be announced shortly at www.mma-europe.ch.
January 18, 2012: Amsterdam, Netherlands. "Forecast 2012." The date is not yet finalized, but will be shortly, and it will be around this date.
March 16-18, 2012: The 8th Annual Balkan International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia. Featuring a workshop on Financial Astrology with Raymond Merriman.
April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. "Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing," focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact dralagifts@msn.com.
May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world.
September 20-27, 2012: The first annual "MMA International Cycles Summit on World Economy, Politics, and Financial Markets." Location will be in Lake Bled, Slovenia, one of the most beautiful regions in the world. Details will be announced soon. It's on!
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2011; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
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