MMA Comments for the Week Beginning August 8, 2011
Written by Raymond Merriman
Please note that due to the speech and symposium taking place in San Francisco next weekend, I will not be issuing a weekly column. We will resume the following week, August 19. I look forward to meeting several of you in San Francisco next week.
Review and Preview
Now, that was a week worthy of a Financial Astrology lesson! Surprises, disappointments, market panics, and volatility – all the ingredients of strong aspects involving Mars, Jupiter and Uranus
The week began with the USA leaders finally coming to an agreement to lift the debt ceiling limit, with the final vote on Tuesday, just before Mercury turned retrograde. And, as expected, no one really liked it. What they agreed upon mostly was to form a committee of 6 persons from each party to go at again by the end of the year, and if they can't come up with an agreement, then further spending cuts will automatically be executed in a wide variety of programs. In all, the so called "historic" and actual spending cuts amounted to about 1% of the budget. Well, that's Mercury retrograde. Whatever you decide has to be revisited again later on. The last-ditch effort to save the U.S.A. from default was then followed by another default threat in Europe to Italy's account (on top of what is happening in Spain, Greece, Ireland, and Portugal).
So, after stocks sharply declined in 5 of the 6 trading days before the agreement, you would have thought investors would be euphoric that the debt ceiling limit impasse had ended. They were at first. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up nearly 140 points in the first few minutes of the trading last week. But that changed quickly. By Friday (following the new euro zone debt threats), the DJIA fell to 11,139, its lowest level since December 1, 2010. It had lost over 1600 points from its recent high on July 21 at 12,751, just two weeks earlier. Investors were scared. They were in panic. Fortunately the market rallied about 300 points into the close, which will allow some traders to sleep better this weekend. Yet that was still a bearish weekly close.
Many major support levels were broken on the decline, but not the important 23-month moving average, which still supports the 4-year cycle at 11,018.
Besides all that, it was classic Financial Astrology in action. Not that this Financial Astrologer interpreted the market behavior correctly from day to day each day. It was a case of astrology being right, but the astrologer misreading some of it, which happens at times to those of us who are human. Sorry to tell you this, but… However, by Friday, our short-term traders made all of that and more back by nailing both the high and low of the day in several indices. It was typical Mercury retrograde (August 2-26), one that broke support in stocks and crude oil, and resistance in Gold and Treasuries, each level failing one after another during the week,
The market collapse and investor panic started during the time heliocentric Mercury was in Sagittarius (July 19-31), a period in which "panic and hysteria" were correctly cited as possibilities. It then escalated as hard aspects involving Mars, Jupiter, and Uranus unfolded (August 1-10). As discussed several times in this column, "big moves" often happen when these planets are involved in hard aspects in a short span of time. The Sun and Venus were both in square to Jupiter last week (August 1 and 4 respectively). Mars will square Uranus and enter into opposition to Pluto next week, August 9-10 but its effects are felt even before. Those same two days, the Moon will be in Sagittarius (the "Sagittarius Factor, when markets often make big price moves). After that and the full moon of next weekend (August 13), things may slow down a little. But through early this week at least, we are still in this brutal, volcanic time band.
For now, stock and commodity markets are behaving like someone crazed on a psychedelic- amphetamine cocktail, chased with shots of Jack Daniels. In typical Mars-Uranus fashion, there was (and still is) a sense of chaos and loss of control. The stock market panic hit every region around the world last week. In the madness, Gold, Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen soared to new all-time highs, with Treasury Notes not far behind. Gold and the Yen sold off sharply after making their all-time highs, and there is no way that the Swiss Franc will ever become the replacement for the U.S. Dollar as the world's standard currency, despite its history as a "safe haven," as some were proposing. The country is just too small for that role, and I doubt they would want that. I mean, they are Virgo and they are Swiss. Leave them alone and let them do what they do best, which is confidentiality and secrecy, combined with incredible efficiency. Don't ask them to take on the world's currency stress. They won't do it (I don't think.)
Short-Term Geocosmics
Sanity and certainty are apt to continue in short supply for financial markets this week. Mercury is still retrograde, so basic chart patterns, technical indicators, and support-resistance zones are apt to be unreliable. It may be a positive time for day traders, or aggressive and very short-term traders, but if you like to carry a position for more than 1-4 days, it may still be unnerving.
Mars is now in Cancer where it is not only weak, but it also forms a square to Uranus on Tuesday and an opposition to Pluto on Wednesday. Astrologers call that a cardinal T-square and it will be reminiscent of the Cardinal Climax that happened last summer, for the planets are in the same degrees of the zodiac (early cardinal signs). Besides wild rides in financial markets, it could also coincide with wild eruptions in nature, like hurricanes, earthquakes, high winds, electrical blackouts, drought conditions, and fires. On a personal level, it would be wise to avoid antagonizing anyone who has a hot temper. This can quickly lead to an escalation of tensions and threats. But this period of time (August 1-10) does give us a glimpse of what the Uranus-Pluto in exact square will be all about in 2012-2015. It is not going to be easy achieving a consensus about the world wide debt bomb, a can of (hostile) worms that was just kicked down the road again.
Longer Term Thoughts
"The 1841-1842 Defaults. This was actually a series of defaults by nine state governments, including three states that repudiated their debt altogether. The federal government was not involved." - John Carney, Senior Editor, CNBC.com, May 23, 2011
I would like to thank the several readers who sent in links regarding the history of the U.S. government's default record. Each of the links clearly showed that in fact, the USA has never defaulted on its debt. But there were a couple of occasions where states had defaulted, including the 1842 instance that was referred to in last week's column as a U.S. government default by noted business reporter Nicholas Kristof, in the September 20, 1998 issue of New York Times International. There was a default then, by nine states, but it was not the federal government that defaulted, according to articles sent in by several readers. Thank you all for the clarification.
Nevertheless, the danger of more debt, increasing deficits, and potential default (the dreaded 'D's) is very real. And already we are starting to see municipalities in the USA declare bankruptcy. As Uranus and Pluto are now within one degree of their waxing square – an aspect that will take place 7 times between June 2012 and March 2015 – this trend could escalate unless rather extreme counter-trend economic measures are adopted. I have no doubt these measures will be adopted some day, but I am uncertain if they will be adopted before this aspect is fully engaged and "forces" the issue, as both the economy and stock market get slammed hard, reminiscent of the past times when Uranus and Pluto were in square aspect to one another (1876-1877, 1932-1933).
On top of that, we still have the downside of the Jupiter transit through the signs ahead of us for the next three years. As noted before, Jupiter in Aries was the basis for the "Assert Inflation Express" we went through from mid-2010 through early June 2011. Historically this coincides with a top in U.S. stocks when Jupiter is between 23° Aries and 7° of Taurus, a condition that was present May 2-July 22. If you look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, you will see the market topped out May 2 at 12,876, with a triple top on July7 and 21 at 12,754 and 12,751 respectively. The top was not in the middle, but in the beginning and end of that sector. Then it dropped 1600+ points from July 21 into this week. The "Assert Inflation Express" had derailed as Jupiter moved into Taurus in the first week of June. But then after posting a double bottom June 15 and 23, it appeared to have righted itself into July 21. But not so. It really derailed again these past two weeks.
Now we wait to see what happens when Jupiter retrogrades back to 0° Taurus later this year. In fact it is back between 0-7° of Taurus from October 7, 2011 through March 7, 2012. Will it make a new high then? A secondary high? I don't know the answer to that yet, but the study of Financial Astrology allows for the possibility. So far this market plunge is just a "normal" corrective decline for the 15.5-month cycle in U.S. stocks, and we are in the time frame when that cycle low is due (July 2011 through February 2012). But if we start breaking the critical support area of a normal corrective decline into the 15.5-month cycle trough, it will mean the 4-year cycle has topped out, and the bear market suggested by Jupiter's transit into 2013-2014 is well underway.
How far could the DJIA fall in that case? Well, unlike most 72- and 90-year cycles, this one has not fallen 77-93% off its all-time highs yet. The decline from October 2007 through early March 2009 was only 54%. So, to a cycles analyst and a student of the history of Financial Astrology, the economic danger that was felt this week (as Uranus and Pluto came within just one degree of their exact square) is very real. We are on a path of financial self-destruction unless our economic direction changes. That's the frightening message of Uranus square Pluto, 2012-2015, which will form a grand square to the USA natal Sun-Saturn square (2013-2014). The positive message is that it will change. But will it change before, during, or after 2012-2015? If after, it will change only because there are no choices left. What we are all going through in 2008-2015 is not just an economic crisis brought on by well-intentioned but disastrous political and economic decisions, but an evolutionary crisis. The evolution of humanity is a never-ending quest to connect with one other, not to be destroyed by one another because we refuse to connect and wish only to control and force others to follow our ideological but disconnected agenda.
Announcements
The monthly MMA Cycles Report and its companions – the MMA Japan Cycles Report and MMA European Cycles Report – will come out this week, Monday and Tuesday, via posting on our web site, and attachment via direct emails, for subscribers. This report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The new MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only, and will be available on Wednesday. For further information and subscription, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/subscription-services/mma-cycles-report/.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them."
The special pre-publication discount price of $125.00 plus postage for "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 5: Price Objectives and Technical Analysis," will continue until August 20. The book is due out in September as planned (around the new moon of September 27). It is always a surreal feeling when I complete a book of this size (over 300 pages). Like every market analyst who writes a book, I think this is the greatest one ever written. Did I ever disclose that I have Mercury in Sagittarius? Well, it is true. I am very pleased with this book and I think it is the one book that you will truly get your money's worth from purchasing. It's a book about the tools that serious traders use, the formulas that they use to calculate price targets, and the trading plans that work using market timing and technical indicators. This book is like the market itself: it is packed with powerful tools (signals), and if you take the time to learn these tools properly, your chances of being a successful trader will increase tremendously. The book is approximately 320 pages, printed in perfect bind format, gloss cover, 8-1/2" x 11" size. The retail price at the time of publication (and after August 20 for pre-orders) will be $144.00. This publication will complete the project that started in 1996, and covered approximately 1600 pages of studies and strategies for all types of traders and investors, using our market timing methods. In all, this is a complete and unified approach to analyzing (and trading) financial markets, and especially stock markets. If you are interested in this unique and integrated methodology for analyzing and forecasting stock indices, you can save big bucks by ordering now at http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/books/the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-5/, or just go to www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the announcement. Events:
August 13, 2011: San Francisco, CA. Financial Market Timing seminar, featuring Raymond Merriman. It is on. Location is Golden Gate University. Details available at www.tsaasf.org. You must make a reservation to attend through their web site. Immediately afterwards there will be a special meeting with MMA subscribers who make reservations with us beforehand (call 248-626-3034, or email Amber at ordersmma@msn.com). There is no charge for subscribers to attend this special meeting afterwards ($95 if you are not a subscriber). Also on the program will be fellow Financial Astrologer Arch Crawford, and Gann Specialist Sinan Koray from Australia. The TSAASF has arranged special rates at the Club Quarters Hotel on Clay Street. Call 415-392-7400 for reservations. My talk will be on the "Gold and the Saturn-Pluto Cycle."
January 6-7, 2012: Zurich Switzerland. Forecast 2012 Symposia sponsored by AstroData. Details to be announced shortly at www.mma-europe.ch.
January 18, 2012: Amsterdam, Netherlands. "Forecast 2012." The date is not yet finalized, but will be shortly, and it will be around this date.
February 23 and 25: Hong Kong, China. "Forecast 2012" on Thursday, February 23, and a workshop on "Financial Market Timing" on Saturday, February 25.
March 16-18, 2012: The 8th Annual Balkan International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia. Featuring a workshop on Financial Astrology with Raymond Merriman.
April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. "Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing," focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact dralagifts@msn.com.
May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world.
September 20-27, 2012: The first annual "MMA International Cycles Summit on World Economy, Politics, and Financial Markets." Location will be in Lake Bled, Slovenia, one of the most beautiful regions in the world. The final decision on whether or not to host this event will be made shortly.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Readers should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2011; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
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