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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning September 12, 2011
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
Every trading day of last week was either up or down triple digits in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It was a shortened trading week due to last Monday's Labor Day holiday. In keeping with the theme of the season, President Barack Obama began his campaign to create more jobs in America. Immediately following his Labor Day speech on his ideas in Detroit on Labor Day, the DJIA began the trading week down over 100 points. But then as word leaked out that he was planning a big stimulus package to create new jobs, combined with progress on the Euro zone banking problems, the DJIA rallied 275 points on Wednesday. It started on strong on Thursday too, in anticipation of the president's big "jobs creation" speech that night, but by the end of the day it was down 119 points. And then came "The Speech," which caught everyone by surprise when he announced his emboldened plans for a $447B stimulus package, far more than the consensus of $300B. The market reacted by selling off more than 300 points on Friday to close precariously close to its low of August 9, following by S&P's downgrade of the USA's credit worthiness. There may be a connection between SP2 (Stimulus Package 2) and the S&P downgrade of last month. After all, the geocosmic signatures of early August are very similar to some of the geocosmic signatures coming up later this week through the end of September (see "Short-Term Geocosmics").
Equities weren't the only financial markets stunned by the president's plan. Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil also sold off after initial rallies into Thursday's speech. On the other hand, U.S. Treasuries (the so-called "safe haven") rallied to an all-time high after the speech, much like Gold did in the early part of last week. Ten-Year notes are now yielding less than 2%. If you are a long-term investor, this is a very hard market to make money in. if you are a saver, it is almost impossible to make money on your capital. If you are a speculator, this is an exceptional market climate in which to make money. Unfortunately, most people are not speculators. They are investors and savers, and so the sense of panic arises once more around the world concerning the unstable financial markets, perhaps associated with the uncertainty about "what to do" on the part of both political and banking leaders. It's is all part and parcel of the continuing saga of the Cardinal Climax of 2008-2015, containing the same long-term geocosmic signatures that were last present 1928-1934.
Short-Term Geocosmics
The next time band of heavily populated geocosmic signatures will start September 16 and last through October 7. During this three-week period there are 9 important geocosmic signatures with no more than 5 calendar days between any two consecutive ones. Of these, three are Level 1 types, the strongest correlates to major reversals in financial markets. Those three take place at the beginning of this time band.
On Monday, September 12, there is a full moon. This is important because it is taking place in the mutable signs of Virgo and Pisces. Mutable signs are the most skittish or nervous for financial markets, oftentimes coinciding with sharp price swings. You may remember that on the full moon in Virgo in 2008, then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulsen gave a major speech in which he insisted the U.S. financial and banking system were strong and stable. The U.S. stock market began to sell off at once as news then came out that he would not support bailing out Lehman Brothers investment bank, which immediately started the financial panic of 2008-2009. The difference between now and then was that Saturn was in opposition to Uranus near the degrees of the full moon. This full moon makes no such aspects. But we are nearing a time when both Venus and the Sun will make a translation to the Uranus-Pluto square. So we need to be on the alert for the next speech by a banking or political leader insisting once again that the U.S. (or European or world) banking system and economy are strong and stable, perhaps coincident with the demise of yet another financial landmark.
Wednesday, September 14, finds Venus changing signs into Libra where it will remain until October 9. Usually this is favorable transit for stocks but not as favorable for precious metals. On Friday, September 16, Pluto turns direct. This puts the emphasis right back on world debt again, which tends to depress stock prices, causing a mixed geocosmic reaction given that Venus is in Libra. Perhaps the positive impact of Venus in Libra doesn't kick in until after this week, or even after September 29. Why? Because we find Venus making a T-square to the Uranus-Pluto square on September 17-18 and the Sun doing the same September 25-28. This could be similar to what was witnessed August 8-10 when stocks markets around the world plummeted sharply following the S&P downgrade of the U.S.A. credit worthiness. At that time, Mars made a T-square to the same Uranus-Pluto square. These will be followed by Venus conjunct Saturn on September 29. Therefore it may be a struggle for the positive Venus in Libra to support rising stock prices this time around, given all of these volatile aspects in the next three weeks. But even if the market does have some very sharp down days, a primary cycle low is coming due, and thus a sizable rally is still expected as Jupiter will soon enter the 0-7° of Taurus, October 7, 2011 through March 7, 2012. There is hope ahead, but we have to fall hard first. In fact, we already are.
Look for the next three weeks to be another wild ride for stock prices around the world.
Longer Term Thoughts
"Anything that's done to address unemployment in terms of massive stimulus spending is going to exacerbate deficits. And anything that's done to address deficits in the short-term is going to exacerbate unemployment." - Indra Noovi, chairman and CEO of PepsiCo,www.cnbc.com, "CEO's to Obama: 'Get Out of the Way' for Job Growth," September 8, 2011.
Well, here we go again. Two years ago, shortly after taking office, President Obama announced an ambitious $800B "shovel ready" stimulus program to jump start the economy in the midst of the greatest economic recession since the Great Depression. At the time, this column suggested this was a huge gamble, a "doubling down" on the U.S. debt. If it worked, he would be a hero, a savior. If it didn't, the USA would enter dangerous waters where the debt situation would escalate sharply and Obama would be blamed as a careless steward of U.S. finances.
Will another $447B stimulus program work this time? I don't know. That would now be a $1.2 trillion bet on Keynesian economic theory. It is another huge gamble with unknown results, other than it will escalate the debt for at least the short term. Yet, as before, there is a chance it will work. There are many things in his proposal that are promising, whereas the last time that was not quite the case. At least now the words appear to recognize the value of small businesses as the engine to job creation and greater employment, as well the importance of consumer spending to an economic recovery. That awareness was lacking until the Thursday night speech. I am not so sure, however, that the suggested solutions will correct these issues as fully as they could.
"It will provide a jolt to an economy that has stalled and give companies confidence that if they invest and hire there will be customers for their products and services. You should pass this jobs plan right away,"Obama said. Not exactly and not completely. True, the $240B in tax relief for employees and the reduction of payroll taxes for employers will help. But as suggested in our column of two weeks ago, if they (government and Fed) really want to get people spending again AND raise more revenues from tax receipts, a better way may be for banks (i.e., Fed) to also start increasing interest rates gradually back to 3-4% so savers – the biggest population of consumer spenders – can start earning income from the interest accrued on their savings. That taxable income is 98% below the levels savers received prior to 2008. Put that money back into the hands of the middle class and then "the consumer" will spend, which in turn will help create demand for products and services, which will then translate into companies hiring more people to meet the greater demand. As Jon Faraci, CEO of International Paper told CNBC, "To create jobs, what we need is demand. This economy is 70 percent consumer driven, so we need consumers spending some of their discretionary income if we're going to have demand that's going to lead to more jobs." But the majority of Americans – the "savers" - aren't going to spend discretionary income if they can't replace it with income from savings. They just can't afford it.
The USA is at a critical juncture in terms of its economic future. This is part of the 8-year Cardinal Climax (2008-2015) as stated both in this column and every annual Forecast Book written since 1994. And the most significant geocosmic signature of that Climax is coming up in 2012-2015: Uranus square Pluto. Either that is when the turn comes, or that is the point at which the USA defaults and loses control of its financial status in the world. Uranus and Pluto have been within one degree of exactness to this square for the past two months, so we are seeing the nature of what lies ahead. In order to turn the corner, a bold new plan with a sense of urgency is needed, and Obama delivered the message. But did he deliver the right path to solution? As I stated back in 2009 when the first stimulus package was announced and again this week, it is a gamble - a big gamble. And this "gamble' fits with the principles of transiting Pluto (debt) in opposition to the USA Jupiter (gamble), which is also one of the classical "bankruptcy aspects" in Financial Astrology. But as Financial Astrologers also understand with this aspect, one does not need to enter into bankruptcy if he simply controls his spending. That is, if he doesn't spend more than he earns or can afford, there is no need to experience bankruptcy. Under this aspect, one is tempted to either take unwise chances (gamble) or to spend more than he brings in, and succumbing to this temptation is what leads to bankruptcy.
Announcements
The monthly MMA Cycles Report and its companions – the MMA Japan Cycles Report and MMA European Cycles Report – will come out this week, Monday and Tuesday, via posting on our web site, and attachment via direct emails, for subscribers. This report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The new MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only, and will be available on Wednesday. For further information and subscription, go tohttp://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/subscription-services/mma-cycles-report/.
It's that time of the year again! As in the past, MMA offers a special pre-publication discount rate for those who pre-order the next year's book before October 15, 2011. The special rate for ordering before October 15 is $45.00 plus postage. After that it will increase to $55.00, its normal price. The annual Forecasts Book, written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. Although 2011 is only a little more than half over, several forecasts made in the 2011 book have already unfolded. For a list of some of these forecasts, please go to the front page of our web site at www.mmacycles.com. There you can also place your order for the Forecast 2012 Book at the special pre-publication rate now in effect through October 15. Or call us at 1-248-626-3034. Save Big Bucks and Order Now!!!
"The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 5: Price Objectives and Technical Analysis" is now ahead of its scheduled release date on the new moon in Libra, September 27. It could be ready in the next week. It is always a surreal feeling when I complete a book of this size (over 300 pages). Like every market analyst who writes a book, I think this is the greatest one ever written. Did I ever disclose that I have Mercury in Sagittarius? Well, it is true. I am very pleased with this book and I think it is the one book that you will truly get your money's worth from purchasing, even if you know nothing about geocosmic studies (its primarily about technical; analysis and price objectives). It's a book describing the tools that serious traders use. It identifies the formulas that they use to calculate price targets, and the trading plans that work using market timing and technical indicators. This book is like the market itself: it is packed with powerful tools (signals), and if you take the time to learn these tools properly, your chances of being a successful trader will increase tremendously. The book is 300 pages, printed in perfect bind format, gloss cover, 8-1/2" x 11" size. The retail price of this new book is $144.00.
The publication of Volume 5 will complete the project that started in 1996, and covered approximately 1600 pages of studies and strategies for all types of traders and investors, using our market timing methods. In all, this is a complete and unified approach to analyzing (and trading) financial markets, and especially stock markets. If you are interested in this unique and integrated methodology for analyzing and forecasting stock indices, you can save big bucks by ordering all five volumes, or choice of any four now athttp://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/books/the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-5/, or just go to www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the announcement. If ordering all five volumes, you will save $99.00!
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go tohttp://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them."
Events:
January 6-7, 2012: Zurich Switzerland. Forecast 2012 Symposia sponsored by AstroData. Details to be announced shortly at www.mma-europe.ch.
January 18, 2012: Amsterdam, Netherlands. "Forecast 2012." The date is not yet finalized, but will be shortly, and it will be around this date.
February 23 and 25: Hong Kong, China. "Forecast 2012" on Thursday, March 1, and a workshop on "Financial Market Timing" on Saturday, March 3.
March 9-11, 2012: The 8th Annual Balkan International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia. Featuring a workshop on Financial Astrology with Raymond Merriman.
April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. "Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing," focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contactdralagifts@msn.com.
May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go towww.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2011; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
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