Monday, October 24, 2011

Natural gas could "boil" from the low; KI$$ look for reversal confirmation

Natural gas is bubbling somewhat from another low, which could actually be the trough we've waited for a long time. The $NATGAS futures chart hit $3.49 which was a Fibonacci .707 retrace to the prior deep low, meaning a wave 2 type of low can now reverse to a wave 3 type strong rally upward. Below are $UNG daily, $NATGAS monthly, and a point & figure chart (including reversal marker to help confirm bullish reversal).

KI$$ swing and position traders need to see rising volumes with higher highs, and low volumes on higher lows. Until then, stops are just under the recent lows. Technicals haven't been super yet but the deceleration in downtrend has become apparent, and positive divergence has just occurred at the recent lows. That's good. If it's a wave 3 (or C) up, then technicals should start looking very good soon. $NATGAS should also break upward above the downtrend lines that've been on my monthly chart a long time.

Just so you know, this end-October could be a changing time for the markets; in addition to the usual thoughts about winter pricing firming for natural gas. I learned recently there's a new ultra (double) ETF for natural gas called "BOIL". Hmmmm....!

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