Saturday, October 15, 2011

Views of the volatility index ($VIX) show mixed picture

The volatility index ($VIX) broke under the $30 level, which is bullish to an extent. Notice on the daily chart below, however, that it's very extended and hitting its lower Bollinger Band. That warns that the $VIX is likely to consolidate or even rise, near-term. One target would be an effort toward the Bollinger Band midline, although a consolidation could bring that midline lower without the $VIX having to rise too much. After that, though, it certainly may test lower, at least to its 200-day moving average.

The monthly chart also raises an interesting suggestion whether the $VIX might backtest the descending channel it broke above. Whether at that level, or the 200-day MA (and it'd be really cool if those become simultaneous, but we'll see), that's when we may see a more serious test of support.

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