Happy New Year 2012! Here's a review of forecasts across the financial markets, and we'll cover what we and our go-to featured analysts are seeing; as well as a review of other analysts and approaches that we think our readers will appreciate. Browse these now, and bookmark this post to refer back to from time to time. Odds are you'll even find some ideas and approaches that you may want to give more attention to in the future. The chart first at right here is actually from a cycles projection by Jim Curry (back in Feb. 2011 and still very telling for 2012!), and I'll discuss it in more detail later below. My own general views are based on Fibonacci time and price projections as well as my understandings of Elliott Wave and cycles. These have me bracing for stock market weakness in January, a rise (lower high?) into March, lower again in the summer (June-July), and then I'm less certain right now about a potential rally into late 2012. For KI$$ investing, I've just gone long again on gold and silver, so long as they respect last week's lows, and that should last most or all of 2012. Crude oil could turn bullish, but unless it strengthens fast, I'm tilting bearish on it because it could retest not only the $85 area but even down to $62/65. I'm bearish the euro as it could head toward a Fibonacci retrace level around $112 $XEU. The dollar is tricky because I do expect it to strengthen further, despite the efforts to push it lower; but at some point it may destabilize downward (fueling gold most likely); we'll assess that once we see how it reacts after a rally of perhaps 10%. But since my views are informed by also surveying the contributions of others, let's see what these talented analysts have to offer! For some I'll indicate or include their forecasts; others I'll include as resources."A" is for Andre Gratian whose Market Turning Points update we're glad to share each weekend. He's been referencing long-term cycle lows the stock market is heading toward bottoming around 2014. I'll post his next update Monday, so check back to get all his current think on stock indices, the dollar, bonds (TLT) and gold (meantime you can see his most recent update posted here on December 26).
"A" is also for Afraid to Trade, a site by Corey Rosenbloom at http://afraidtotrade.com with his blog at http://blog.afraidtotrade.com. This weekend he's showing a very interesting chart analysis of Google (GOOG) at that blog.
"B" is for Mike Burke - he publishes a weekly Technical Report analysis for the US stock market. It's posted at Safe Haven, and if you read it you can also see his info on how to sign up to receive it weekly by email. Not really the only thing I'd use but a good adjunct to weekly preparation.
"B" is also for the Bradley siderograph which produces turn dates. But I'll put it at the bottom as "Z" for Manfred Zimmel who produces a forecast chart (warning, the highs/lows aren't absolute - only consider the strong dates as turns; I've even seen them result in a continuation twist rather than pure turn). Under Zimmel below, you'll also find Manfred's explanation of the Bradley siderograph.
"C" - hey, a three-fer! Tony Caldaro, ChartsEdge, and Jim Curry. We'll take 'em one at a time. Tony Caldaro is the greatest Elliott Wave analyst of our time, in my humble opinion. He's reinvented it and calls it Objective Elliott Wave (certainly distinguishes his detailed work totally from that discredited permabear Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International). We're honored to feature Tony's updates here on a regular basis. Currently he's depicting the stock market at a serious juncture, which you can read about and see in his update posted here yesterday.
ChartsEdge by Mike Korell produces keen cycles forecasts for different time frames,. Mike developed unique ways to systemetize the forecasts via a neural network incorporating cycles of varying lengths. He also (for subscribers) incorporates pattern recognition and physics (geomagnetics) for daily and weekly charts that work uncannily well. We're pleased to feature his week-ahead cycle-based forecasts each weekend (and I like to use his daily subscriber charts for intraday trading).
Jim Curry does methodical cycles work. Sometimes he shares a free article that we post. Hey, his February 2011 article was a tour de force with chart projections that are still working! (though his subscriber updates will have been targeting the choppy action since summer). The chart at the top of this article is just one of many you'll want to see in "Stock Cycles Looking for a Peak!" posted 2/22/11 at http://cyclewave.homestead.com/stockcycles.html.
"D" is for DecisionPoint by Carl Swenlin. A solid set of chart work that readers may want to look at from time to time.
"D" is also for Tom DeMark; and interestingly you can often get DeMark signals info for US and other stock markets, even other tradable assets, from Kevin Depew via his Twitter @kevindepew and sometimes that and/or other insights from Joshua Demasi tweeting @joshuademasi.
"D" can also be for Daneric's Elliott Waves at http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/. It's his hobby, so not as complete and rigorous as Tony Caldaro of course. But if you enjoy seeing what it's like to work through Elliott Wave analysis and probabilities, you may enjoy looking at it from time to time. Daneric is talking about a bearish wave 2 up scenario, so that implies a substantial stock market drop looming just ahead! Still, I've gotta say we do turn to Tony Caldaro for Elliott Wave projections, addressed below.
"E" is for the Economic Confidence Modeled pioneered by the iconoclastic Martin Armstrong. It's been awhile since we dug up his updates, but now he's out (literally) and about, and prolific. I have the general understanding that June 2011 bottomed Martin Armstrong's 8.6-year business cycle. That doesn't mean the cycle has to make a higher high, even though the early stage of any cycle is bullish. Note that the next low in that cycle will be in early autumn 2019 (interestingly, some project gold to be bullish, with weak stock markets, into 2020). If you want to study Martin Armstrong's work, including his current and new reports, go to Writings | Armstrong Economics at http://armstrongeconomics.com/martin_armstrong_writings/. Some you may find rather interesting are:
Gold and Reversals, 12/27/11, at http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/armstrongeconomics-answering-questions-gold-reversals-122711.pdf.
Martin Armstrong's December 27, 2011 report at http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/armstrongeconomics-financial-border-controls-122711.pdf.
Armstrong's interesting discussion and forecasting levels regarding the demands and prospects for gold, the US dollar, and US bonds in these turbulent times - why they're going up (and what'll make the dollar and bonds go down): http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/armstrongeconomics-30-yr-rates-record-lows-100711.pdf.
Also his 11/4/11 "Financial Armagedon" report with discussion of debt, currencies, and gold as a hedge and investment including a detailed analysis of gold forecasts for the coming months and years: http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/armstrongeconomics-financial-armagedon-110411.pdf.
"K" is for Samuel Kress, though it could almost be for Kondratiev, because Kress analyzes long-wave cycles (such as 60 and 120 years). His updates are sometimes summarized by Clif Droke in articles at Safe Haven. Clif has stated that the 6-year cycle peaked around October 2011, and suggests that the stock market may not make a new high before the long-wave cycles bottom in the years directly ahead.
"M" is for the incomparable Raymond Merriman whose public weekly previews we're delighted to feature. If you don't already have his Forecast 2012 book, go to MMACycles.com and get it now. There's a wealth of great forecasting for the stock markets, US bonds, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and grains, plus other bonus features like forecasts for the US presidential elections, the US and the world socionomically for the years ahead, the Federal Reserve, and annual horoscope forecasts for individuals under the various astrological signs. Fascinating stuff.
"M" is also for McClellan - we greatly appreciate using the Oscillator and Summation Index invented by McClellan ... Did you know they have a website? Maybe I won't agree with them 100% but they're doing a lot of great work. Check out their latest "Copper Weakness Is a Warning Sign - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial" sounding, a warning based on weakness in "Dr. Copper" at http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/copper_weakness_is_a_warning_sign/. But copper isn't gold - see their post earlier this year, One to Three Years Left For Gold's Run - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial, at http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/one_to_three_years_left_for_golds_run/.
Another to consider is Marty Chenard who has a website service and occasionally posts at SafeHaven. His work is good but he isn't very open in public about forecasts for the future.
"M" is definitely also for Mr. Top Step, veteran traders of the ES_F (S&P futures), bonds and more, and if you're seriously trading you'll want to follow those tweets @mrtopstep.
"N" is for the Najarian brothers, Jon and Pete (yes, same as on CNBC's Fast Money, and along with Rick Santelli (also a veteran featured on CNBC many mornings), in the movie Floored). Again, if you're seriously trading, you'll want to keep in touch with their optionMONSTER, and tweets via @optionMONSTER and especially @optionMONSTERfd.
"O" is for the Outlook, that is, the Monday Morning Outlook posted (and can be received by emails) by the excellent Todd Salamone and of course Bernie Schaeffer and increasingly Rocky White at Schaeffer's Investment Research. Todd Salamone helps keep and eye on the technical and sentiment backdrop each weekend, mainly for the US stock markets.
"P" could be for Phil Davis who has his Phil's Stock World website with subscriber services, and occasionally posts at SeekingAlpha. His work is very good, but he focuses almost entirely on heavy-duty options trading, and isn't very open in public about forecasts for the future other than for the immediate future.
"P" will also be for Prieur de Plessis whose "Investment Postcards" updates often contain good alerts and interviews. Such as the next one, below:
"R" goes to the venerable Richard Russell. You'll want to know this: “Upside gold crescendo lies ahead,” says Richard Russell « posted at Prieur de Plessis' Investment Postcards from Cape Town, December 31 at http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2011/12/31/upside-gold-crescendo-lies-ahead-says-richard-russell/. Russell also issued a bearish alert on the stock market recently, indicating he doesn't expect it to make new highs.
"R" can also be for Alex Roslin who creates trading signals for 8 markets (SPX, Nikkei, gold, oil, natural gas and more), at his http://www.cotstimer.blogspot.com, using the weekly Commitments of Traders reports. He's improved his analysis and signals during the four years he's been posting and you'll want to keep an eye on his signals.
"S" we'll assign to Sentimentrader - they produce a neat gauge each day ( which Andre Gratian includes often in his reports). They also have other free and paid services, including a blog and a Twitter (I do follow them on Twitter).
"T" has to go to Terry Laundry with his trademarked "T Theory™" (incorporating breadth/strength analysis) as well as incorporating some cycles has definite opinions regarding the path of the stock market, gold, and US Treasury bonds. Yes, he's talking about a projected low date in January, and has thoughts about price and time both then and as 2012 will progress. Terry also has projections for stocks and gold (and probably bonds) that go out for years ahead. You can hear Terry's free T Theory weekend updates at http://www.ttheory.com/observations.php, which also has a link to his free public charts at Stockcharts.com.
"V" is definitely for VIX and More, analysis by Bill Luby on the volatility index. You can follow his VIX signals and informative discussions at http://vixandmore.blogspot.com, and via Twitter too. Anything you want to know about how the VIX works, "and More", you can learn there.
"Z" is for Manfred Zimmel with his work on the Bradley siderograph, at Zimmel's Amanita Market Forecasting site. Here's a quote of his Bradley chart discussion at http://www.amanita.at/FAQ/FragenzumBradley-Siderograph/Bradley-Siderograph/
The Bradley [astrology-based] siderograph was developed in the 1940'ies by Donald Bradleyto forecast the stock markets (link book). Bradley assigned numerical values to certain planetary constellations for every day, and the sum is the siderograph. It was originally intended to predict the stock markets. The noted technical analyst William Eng singled out the Bradley model as the only 'excellent' Timing Indicator in his book, "Technical Analysis of Stocks, Options, and Futures" (source: Astrikos).It is crucial to understand what the siderograph is about since many traders (and even financial astrologers) misunderstand it. Over the decades it has been observed that the siderograph can NOT (!!!) reliably predict the direction but only turning points in the financial markets (stocks, bonds, commodities) within a time window of +/- 4 calendar days (in some cases up to +/- 1 week with the exception of Amanita pivots (+/- 1-2 days). Inversions (i.e. a high instead of a low and vice versa) are quite common.
In 2011 the Bradley siderograph could not beat random probabilities by much, when taking all turning points into considerations. Only the major turning points (bold & large in the chart) continue to be valuable timingtools *today*.
2011
2012
This is the Bradley standard model (original formula according to Donald Bradley) from December 2011 through January 2013:
In 2012 there are 4 major turning points:
- March 3, 2012
- June 12, 2012
- July 28, 2012
- December 22, 2012
Strictly speaking the siderograph dates are potential turning dates, bifurcation points in the language of chaos theory. In addition to the standard model there are 3 other models in the premium area, which may be quite different. All Bradley analyses in the free area since 2007 can be found here.
Raw data for your own research
Premium subscribers of Amanita Market Forecasting get the data of the four Bradley models for the period 1990-2020 as a .txt file (click here to subscribe). Another possibility: you calculate the data yourself with the aid of a financial astrology software ('Financial astrology is the use of astrology to analze and forecast the financial markets. Here financial astrology is understood primarily as an empirical-statistical discipline. The probably first financial astrologer in history was Thales of Miletus who is viewed as the father of science and philosophy (together with Aristotle). With the aid of astrology Thales foresaw an excellent olive harvest, so he hired all olive presses that he lent out with a huge profit, which made him a rich man.') - please go to the software-page. I mainly use the Market Trader von Alphee Lavoie, which is too expensive for the average hobby researcher though.
Enjoy the forecasts and educational analysis offered by the above array of great folks - it's enough to last you through 2012 in more ways than one! There certainly are others who do great work, I'm not intending to diss anyone by exclusion. I'm just including those that either we consistently refer to (readers will recognize as such here over time), or that I know my readers will find interesting for their views and/or analysis. I may augment this later this weekend and as the year progresses. Happy New Year all!
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment