Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
MMA Comments for the Week Beginning March 5, 2012
Written by Raymond Merriman
This is written Friday night here in Hong Kong, which is Friday morning in the USA. When I wake up tomorrow (Saturday), the markets will have closed in the USA, but I begin an all-day workshop here in HK. Thus this week's report will not have the benefit of being written after the weekly close in the USA. It will therefore be a shortened report.
Next week's report may have the same limitations due to time changes and lecture schedule in Belgrade, Serbia. However we intend to keep up with our daily and weekly subscription reports during this period.
Review and Preview
The three U.S. stock markets that we track all made new three-year highs last week. However this phenomenon still has not been repeated in many other stocks markets of the world, including here in China and Hong Kong. And we are now nearing the critical March 7 period when Jupiter leaves that sector of the heavens where its mean position indicates the possibility of a long-term cycle crest. A new high beyond this week implies a pattern more similar to the mid 1960's and the late 1920's may be in force. In those cases, long-term cycle highs coincided with Jupiter moving well past the early degrees of Taurus and into the next sign of Gemini, as discussed in last week's column. We will repeat that section of the column (Longer-Term Thoughts) in this week, for it is most relevant now.
Of great interest to us last week was the sudden decline in precious metals. On Wednesday, February 29, Gold made a cycle high at 1792.70, up nearly $270/ounce from the low of December 29. By the end of the day, it had plunged over $100/ounce following comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. My email box was flooded with emails as I awoke Thursday morning, for it occurred during the night here in Hong Kong. Everyone asked the same thing: "Is it over for precious metals?" My reply in all cases was the same: "I think this is a gift from heaven."
Gold fell to 1688. The low in late December, when we issued our special alert to subscribers, was 1523. As long as that holds, these studies indicate a possible move to 2400—2750 for the crest of the new 3-year cycle in the next three years.
As market timers, our focus is on identifying moments of great risk-reward ratios for trading and investments. We do this through the application of cycle studies and geocosmic signatures (Financial Astrology), combined with technical analysis. So, if the risk is down to 1523 and reward potential is say to 2500, and prices are currently around 1700, what should we be doing as specialists in risk-reward set ups? Should we be looking for technical signals to buy or to sell as we are now in a geocosmic critical reversal period and the early stages of new long-term cycle (3-year cycle)? If you understand what I am suggesting here, then you have a sense of why I look at this as "a gift from heaven."
Three days before last Wednesday's sharp decline, Silver had issued a very strong technical topping signal that pointed to a 10% decline within the next 7 trading days. This signal was described at length in our book titled "The Sun, The Moon, and the Silver Market, Secrets of a Silver Trader." This topping signal was reported to our daily and weekly subscribers last week before the decline happened. Then on Wednesday, February 29, Silver declined 9.99%, very close to the 10% decline this signal suggested would happened quickly. Not bad. It was also a solar-lunar reversal day, as indicated by the weighted value averages displayed every day for the DJIA and Silver on our web site at www.mmmacycles.com.
There are three major time bands of geocosmic signatures coming up this month. The first is occurring this weekend, as described in last week's column. The first is the Sun's 25-month opposition to Mars, taking place on Saturday, March 3. The second takes place the very next day – Sunday, March 4 – when Venus makes its opposition to Saturn. Both are strong Level 1 signatures. According to the studies published in Volume 3 of "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing," Level One signatures have the highest correlation to the completion of primary cycles in U.S. stock markets. In other words, a primary cycle trough or crest is due nearby to this period.
The next time band of geocosmic signatures comes up March 12-14, followed by March 24-29. This latter one is also important because it represents the time when the transiting Sun will translate the Uranus-Pluto square. It is yet another preview of what to expect from June 2012-March 2015, when the Uranus-Pluto square will be exact. During that time it will make seven passages, which is a lot.
Longer-Term Thoughts (repeat from last week, due to seminar obligations in Hong Kong this week)
There are still two weeks left for Jupiter to remain in 0-7º Taurus, a zodiacal time frame that correlates to long-term cycle crests when averaged out over the past 140 years (make that one week now). However, after studying individual cases of Jupiter in this sector of the sky prior to the past 25 years, it became apparent that there were exceptions. And what is most interesting is that the most notable exceptions occurred when hard aspects between Uranus and Pluto were nearby. That only happens four times during the 112-142 year cycle of these two powerhouses.
In the study of astrology, hard aspects are defined as the time of a conjunction, waxing square, opposition, and waning square between two planets. Uranus and Pluto started their cycle with the conjunction of 1965-1966. The waxing square (first quarter cycle phase) between them will commence on June 24, 2012, and last through March 17, 2015. During that time they will make seven exact square aspects. That is a lot! The previous hard aspect (before the conjunction) was the waning square, which took place five times between April 21, 1932 and January 18, 1934, the height of the "Great Depression."
The 1932-34 instance was preceded by the then all-time stock market high on September 2, 1929. This was a case where the market's advance did not stop within 7º of the Aries-Taurus cusp, or border. The stock market exploded upwards until Jupiter reached 14º of Gemini nearly a year later.
The 1965-66 instance coincided with the first time the Dow Jones Industrial Average touched 1000 in January-February 1966, right in the midst of the Uranus-Pluto conjunction passages. But once again, Jupiter had already passed through early Taurus over a year before that. It topped out when Jupiter had retrograded back to 23º Gemini. The DJIA didn't touch 1000 again for 7 years. There might be something to the idea that stock prices explode higher after Jupiter leaves early Taurus, if a Uranus-Pluto hard aspect is nearby. But in both cases, and so many other cases, the stock market still fell hard into a long-term cycle low after Jupiter entered Leo. This time, that will occur after July 2014.
What is the lesson in this exercise, applied to the current situation? Generally speaking, the stock market is due to make an important long-term cycle crest between now and June 2013. More specifically, if it continues higher after March 2012 (and probably after March 7, 2012), it may continue to explode higher until Jupiter reaches mid-Gemini, sometime between August 2012 and June 2013. This matter is covered in greater detail in last week's Forecast 2012 webinar, which is now available for viewing in its entirety as an on-line broadcast, through March 20 (see announcements below).
Perhaps the more important question is: why might the stock market rally strongly past March 2012? It's an election year, so just put the pieces together. Who wins and who loses with a robust stock market? The answer provides one of the reasons why I think the incumbent is likely to win again, and why this time the Jupiter in early Taurus may not work. However, there is still time for it to work, and not only is the stock market in the last phase of 4-year cycle, but it is also in the last phase of the primary cycle (15-23 week cycle in the S&P averages). Remember: in last phase of bull markets, the market will exhibit its most bearish characteristics. The steepest decline always takes place in the last phase of a bull market cycle. And when these last phases also contain strong rallies, the decline is even steeper. The higher prices go in the last phase of a cycle, the harder they fall when the bubble pops. It is often a case of suddenly realizing that the emperor has no clothes.
There is a good article in Forbes magazine on Financial Astrology. I am part of this excellent report. Check it out at http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/02/20/can-planets-affect-your-portfolio/. Or also try www.forbes.com.
The "Forecast 2012" webcast of Sunday, February 19 went extremely well. Perhaps it was our best webcast ever, according to feedback received. The entire broadcast is available as a historical archive until March 20. That is, you can view the presentation in its entirety – with slides, video, and questions and answers – as often as you want until March 20. The cost to get into the archive is $45.00 (no postage). If you would like a DVD or CD of the presentation for your library, they too are now available for $59.95 and $45.00 respectively, plus postage. Just go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/dvd%27s,-cd%27s-and-archived-broadcast-of-forecast-2012-webcast-now-available!!!/. Or go to our home page at www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the announcement. For those ordering CD's, a PDF file of the charts will be emailed along with the order. "I just wanted to say that Ray's presentation was EXCELLENT! Great presentation and the WEBINAR was outstanding. Once again…THANK YOU!" Matt M., trader, Boulder, CO.
NEW! Now available Mini-Congress 'Outlook for 2012' on CD!!! Recordings of the congress "Outlook for 2012," held January 21, 2012 in Amsterdam, are now available on CD, with audio and PDFs of PowerPoint slides. All lectures are spoken in English. The following presentations are included on this CD: "2012 End Time of Dawning" by Irma Schogt (20 minutes);"Happy New Year" by Drs. Karen Hamaker-Zondag (20 minutes , regarding ECB and Federal Reserve Board); "2012=The Center of the Storm" by Antonia Langsdorf (20 minutes, regarding Mayan calendar and astrology); "Forecast for 2012" by Raymond Merriman (1 hour). Total length 2 hours, with PowerPoint slides sent online in a PDF document. Cost is $55.00 plus postage. Please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/the-news/about-mma/cd%27s-now-available-on-the-forecast-2012-mini%11congress-in-amsterdam,-january-21,-2012/, or www.mmacycles.com for ordering info.
If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $850,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.
Copies of the printed version of Forecast 2012 are still available. The E-Book version of the Forecast 2012 Book is also in two different formats. The first is our own version, which contains both the text and the calendar-ephemeris for 2012. The cost for this is $55.00. The second is through Apple iTunes, which covers iPhone 4 and 4S, and the iPad, and also Amazon.com Kindle. The cost is $39.99. It does not contain the advertisements or the planetary calendar and ephemeris in the back. You can now order it if you have an email address registered via one of these 9 countries (USA, UK, Australia, France, Canada, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain). Just go to iTunes, and then "Library," then "Store," then in the field titled "Search," type in "Forecast 2012" or "Raymond Merriman" (without quotation marks). Or, go to http://itunes.apple.com/us/artist/raymond-merriman/id408289861?mt=11. "After reading the annual Forecasts and subscribing to MMA Cycles for the past ten years, I can say that Ray Merriman's forecasts are uncannily accurate and indispensable for the preservation of wealth. Nothing else I've seen compares. It is without a doubt the best perspective on the big picture, not just bits and pieces of the picture."W.W., Investor and Teacher, Indiana.
Our new 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.
March 1 and 3, 2012: Hong Kong. "Forecast 2012" on Thursday, March 1, and a full day intensive on "Financial Market Timing" on Saturday, March 3, with emphasis on Gold, Silver, Currencies, and Equity Markets for 2012. Organized by Earlthorn.Com at the Excelsior Hotel, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. Contact Teresa Wong at 852-2529 1211 (phone), or by e-mail at email@example.com. A special 90-minute private meeting with MMA Subscribers will follow the workshop on March 3. Looking forward to meeting our Hong Kong subscribers next week!!!
March 9-11, 2012: The 12th Annual Balkan International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia. Featuring a pre-seminar workshop with Raymond Merriman. For further information on this fantastic gathering, contact www.keplerunited.org. +381-11-267-31-92 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. "Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing," focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact email@example.com. Once again, a private meeting for MMA subscribers will follow the workshop. Please let us know if you plan to attend the subscribers' meeting afterwards.
April 27: Scottsdale, AZ. Evening presentation on "Political, Economic and Financial Markets Outlook for 2012." Details soon.
May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world. There will be private meeting for MMA on Friday or Sunday evening on the top floor of the Marriott.
June 23: Amsterdam. A special 5-hour workshop on "The Gold Market: Forecasting the Future Price of Gold." 11:00 AM – 5:00 PM, Victoria Hotel. Sponsored by Schogt Market Timing. This is a special workshop you will not want to miss! For further information and sign up, please go to http://www.markettiming.nl/en/blog/workshop-gold-and-silver-amsterdam for an exciting event in one of the world's most exciting cities at the most exciting time of the year: the first Uranus-Pluto square will be taking place then!
August 2-6, 2012: Midwest Astrology Conference, inAnn Arbor, MI, Holiday Inn. Pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology, Thursday, August 2, with Raymond Merriman. More details soon.
September 14-15, 2012: San Diego: Lecture on world economy and national election, and then a workshop on Financial Market Timing. More details shortly.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2012; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com