Wednesday, May 2, 2012

It's a gas! Natural gas trend reversal not just blowing bubbles

Okay folks - I've been tweeting for a week about what looked to me like a trend reversal in natural gas. I'm glad to see that Tony Caldaro has marked it similarly in his Objective Elliott Wave work! I've taken the liberty of showing his daily and weekly charts of $NATGAS (spot), below, just above my monthly chart of it (mine's the blue-colored chart at the bottom). Tony's charts also show his note that it's "uptrending" and that means - hello, it's reversed trend from having been downtrending! Of course traders and investors including KI$$ swing traders should use stops to protect against potential losses; but the reversal pattern indicates it's time to switch from selling rallies to buying dips. First, here's Tony's daily chart:

Technical indicators like Stochastics-Relative Strength Indicator (StochRSI) and MACD are part of the confirmation, supporting the Elliott Wave counting. I can't speak for Tony's projections, but I see a potential for $NATGAS (spot) to head for the monthly Bollinger Band midline which may converge with retesting a broken trendline on my monthly chart at approximately $3.80 (double its recent low), then pull back to perhaps $2.85 (which would be a 50% retrace) before pushing up toward testing $6 to $7 eventually. By the way, when I tweet about natural gas prices short-term, I refer to the /NG futures because that what I'm seeing on my trading charts, so allow for the difference between futures and spot pricing. (An ETF like UNG or BOIL will generally track but not necessarily exactly so be aware of that too.)

You can find Tony Caldaro's charts link at the bottom of each of his updates to view these along with all of his public charts. You can find his daily market updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, or going to his OEW website, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the full site page.

Here's his weekly chart:

And here's my monthly chart of $NATGAS. The markings are outdated but I think the broken shallow uptrending line may serve anew as a place for price to retest probably when it also tests the monthly Bollinger Band midline.

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