Thursday, June 28, 2012

Gold alert - breaking support, now what?! Technical charts review

Gold has moved down enough to break support at the $1560 level identified in my most recent review of gold. You can see this on the P&F chart to the right, which also now shows a bearish target initially to $1460. When you look at my daily chart below (and please forgive the older chart markings on it), one of the features is a shallow sloping downtrend line at the bottom. Interestingly, it could lead gold toward $1517, which also happens to be a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level on my monthly chart. Gold has dipped close to that, but never quite touched it in all the time of the current correction.

If gold does touch or go below $1517, which now does seem rather likely, then it could make for a defined entry, so long as it initiates a pattern reversal upward after tagging or going below $1517. Conversely, if it goes below that - and either fails to reverse upward, or initially goes back up/above but then turns around to go lower again - the next lower target is at $1392 (the 50% retrace I marked on the monthly). Honestly, I think gold could get support at either level.

At first I thought gold really might need $1392. And that remains possible. But now I'm wondering if the mostly sideways nature of this correction implies that it only needs to tag at or somewhat under $1517, before initiating an upward reversal again. Keep an eye on gold to keep track of which scenario proves out.

Fundamentally, the problem seems to be the related combination of deflationary forces and the strengthening U.S. dollar. Gold charted in other currencies may look somewhat different. Again, keep an eye on these levels. If gold gets support at one of these levels, it could have another good move up ahead. I don't want to make predictions yet, but upwards of $2000 seems fair based on the charts, once the correction completes and demonstrates a trend reversal back up.

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