Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Hedge with a wedge on a doji? Keeping an eye on Goldman Sachs
As we've kept an eye on Goldman Sachs (GS) it has edged more into the wedge, as you can see in the daily chart (below). So far today's action looks like a potential doji or spinning top (see Stockcharts.com ChartSchool: Introduction to Candlesticks for information on these candlestick types). This wedge formation doesn't guarantee that it's bearish, since there are some instances when a pattern that looks like a rising wedge actually leads to another leg up (such as an extended fifth wave). But it can also be bearish. Given that GS has retraced 50% to its peak and the indicators are looking more tired as volumes diminish, it would be a good idea to be prepared in case it declines. I made a bit of a joke in the title for this, since there are some (such as Tyler Durden at his Zero Hedge blogspot) who refer to GS as more of a hedge fund than a bank. I wonder if they are allowed to hedge against their own stock price? Of course, they're in the news because of their wish to repay TARP money and get out from under the TARP program. Since GS is also a significant component of the financial/banking sector, any big change in their stock price can also influence an index. Breaking out of this wedge, either to the upside or the downside, can indeed lead to a big change.
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