One quarter after the March lows - a feast of charts with a little something for everyone

We've made it to three months (approximately 90 days - a Fibonacci and Gann time frame) from the March lows, so let's celebrate with a feast of charts and an overview of where we are! Not only is this one-quarter of a circle turn from then,* but the March lows were about 1.382 year from the October 2007 peak and currently this is about 1.618 year from that same peak. We'll have to see if this turns out to be a turnaround Tuesday (although maybe that's supposed to be next week), but with rollovers setting up and "Weird Wollie Wednesday" tomorrow as folks start to reposition for next week's options expiration (opex) we should remain alert. We're tickling some projection numbers that Andre Gratian has and, separately, that Tony Caldaro has, as well as Fibonacci levels that I've been noodling around with on the daily and weekly charts. The Nasdaq appears the strongest of the major indices, most of which are struggling with their 200-day moving averages, while the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports still haven't surmounted their January highs. The banks are still with us, although grappling with their 200-day moving average and haven't pulled up out of their swoon since a failed breakout attempt a couple of weeks ago. The financials are in better shape, which should be comforting at least to those on the Street! Oil's continuing to probe upward and we should know soon whether it's just a last small 5th wave for this rally leg, or if it just refuses to trend reverse and keeps marching to $85+ as some expect.

*Update at 11:46 pm: note also, SPX has moved up three times 90 - from the low at 667 to 757, 847, 937 in this time.

U.S. Treasury bonds and notes continued pushing into my targets today, and this is the first time that I could consider that the last 5th wave of the movement may have finished. With a doji candlestick on the day, maybe we'll see tomorrow move above today's high with a possibility that it's time to buy them again. Corresponding movements occurred today in gold, the dollar and other currencies - so it depends whether you are bullish or bearish on those assets, whether you consider that just a pullback before continuation with a trend reversal (up for the dollar, down for gold and other currencies).

On the daily SPX chart, I started marking horizontal lines for support/resistance areas, and then vertical lines to mark off monthly time periods based on the 6th to 9th day since there's a hint of pattern with highs/lows. Didn't mean to go too far with it though. The other charts below, the indicators pretty much tell the tale. Nasdaq definitely stronger, while other indices that (unlike Nasdaq) had made higher highs after the year 2000 are looking weaker. The technical levels in some cases show relative strength compared to the year 2007, so you decide whether that means the rally continues on up or that the market's overbought and in need of correction. Maybe some of both. Even if we do see new lows, I'm guessing that the relative strength in some of the technical (advance/decline) indicators is telling us that the next rally after that will be an even better ride.

Sentiment still seems rather hot to me, so I'm counting that in the bearish column right now along with negative divergence in some of the indices' indicators as well as the bank sector's sluggishness. The CPCE chart, I put onto a longer time frame so you can see that it's recently been starting to zigzag up to its 200-day moving average. I'm thinking that if CPCE starting doing its zigzag by pushing up and bringing its other moving averages with it, accompanied by a move up in the VIX, should clue us in about a pullback coming. So many are looking for "the pullback" once again, and there's a lot of hope that it's going to be the right shoulder of a bullish head and shoulders pattern (whether it's considered a B-wave pullback, wave 2, "W" bottom, or whatever they have in mind). If indeed the market does cool off and roll over, I just hope my readers will remember that those ideas are possible. But not guaranteed; meaning, it's also possible that we see a retest of the March lows that fails and tests lower (yes, I'm still thinking about 578-600 in the SPX).

What about not a pullback, or not a meaningful one, and the market just shoots on up? You might be seeing that if you have your green shoots glasses on! Hey, in theory anything is possible, but let's just say I'm not going to chart that out unless and until the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports both exceed their January highs. I'm not old-fashioned enough to be simply a Dow Theorist, just pointing out that sometimes the "old school" ideas can keep us grounded.