Posted: September 2nd, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under: One-Day Market Map | »
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Thanks once again, Mike and ChartsEdge!
Folks - sorry I overslept on this vacation day - at least you may have clicked on the ChartsEdge daily maps site, or even site feed, at the right side of the page to see today's map.
Oil's down as a major new field was found by BP in the Gulf of Mexico - isn't it interesting how fundamentals or news are sometimes presaged by price and technicals? (May also be interesting juxtaposed against the new administration giving help to Brazil for developing oil production (and one of the prez's closest mentor-profs from HLS recently joined Brazil's guv'mt) - but, I digress.)
Victor has noted he's awaiting more confirmation the top is in for this rally, which I appreciate. I had made the remark I consider it about 85% certain - frankly I'm also considering analysis from a cycles expert I follow but not allowed to quote. Whose view several days ago was a technical sell in the making to be confirmed by a weekly swing high. Yesterday price went under last week's low, so that created last week as the weekly swing high. That's significant, even as more confirmation will come with lower price levels.
That type of confirmation will also come from Elliott Wave analysis but I'll probably need another day or so to pick out wave patterns from this. If this is indeed the big, bad bear coming back, there are two basic ways it can manifest and I'll be watching for that too.
Meantime, we know Tony Caldaro has called VIX uptrending on his indicators, and the dollar needs to come along "UUP" too. I know UUP got dicey for KI$$ traders but the volumes have been consistent with remaining positive on the dollar.
As for natural gas, volumes in UNG have been relatively light in its last drop here, and when I can get time I'll need to check things like its trendlines and potential symmetry around this price area. Yes it may go to $8 but it may also give some tradable moves along the way (and I want to check all possible price targets). Much also depends on one's trading time frame and style.
I thought gold would drop more so we'll have to keep watching that too.
So as always, careful out there folks, and happy market navigating!
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