Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Kickoff to "fall" season gives early sign of equities falling further

This morning looked like the kickoff to a real "fall" season! as the equities markets again tracked today's ChartsEdge map forecast. For this post I'm borrowing Tony Caldaro's daily charts of the SPX and VIX (thanks Tony! you can see all his charts at his OEW "Elliott Wave Lives On" site, see list at right - I'm traveling, and having a few technical snafu's). Here's what Tony's evening update says about the VIX: "The VIX, btw, has confirmed its first uptrend (more volatility) since early March when the bear market rally began.". And, we"ll have to watch for technical level confirmation of the Elliott Wave trend reversal - but other methods are also saying to sell. As for the banks - I've warned on them so I hope no one's surprised by their fizzle. I've been pointing out they finished 5 waves up after a triangle! The next job will be measuring targets for the banks, probably other sectors, and the equities markets at large. (Or just take it easy, swing short or in cash, and wait a while longer to let the wave patterns confirm how likely a drop re-testing the March lows really is. I'm on board with the idea of such a deep retest, so I'm good with hanging short for such a leisurely exercise.

If the markets are fooling us and want higher, we'll know and won't be hurt, since today's levels between 1018 and 1028 gave plenty of room for shorting from a relatively high level with instant gratification and room for comfort to observe the fray. I tried to be as clear and plain with posts here as I could, so I sure hope readers were able to do likewise!

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