Sunday, January 31, 2010

ChartsEdge week-ahead cycle forecasts for equities and gold, plus comments on current downtrend

Below are the week-ahead cycle-based forecasts from ChartsEdge. And thanks to Mike Korell, who's the fellow doing ChartsEdge - and has also provided some additional comments about what his various indicators are showing (based on his Trader Confidence Index, BP and other cycle-based charting):
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Comment

The long-awaited top was put into place last week.

The BP and TCI charts experienced some problems. The BP data has been leading the market by 19-days for many months.  That lead abruptly changed to 11-days.  This week's chart reflects the change.

The Trader Confidence chart was showing multiple reversals.  It was difficult to interpret these signals since they were so close together.  The current chart attempts to make some sense of the signals. The Trader Confidence Index Chart gave a LOW signal on Friday.  That indicates a likely low on Monday.

The long term (LT) BP chart and Pattern Recognition show a likely move lower at the open on Monday.  The LT BP Chart and Cycle charts indicate that this week will generally be sideways trading with a high on Tuesday. They also agree on continued consolidation during the early part of the week of the 8th.

The Pattern Recognition Chart has a new feature. The Confidence Number will indicate the amount of variation in the predicted patterns.  The higher the number, the more likely the chart is to be correct. This week's 55.1 value is low.  Good values are over 100.


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