Gold may be at a decision point of its own - per these charts

Gold is in a consolidation period before its next big run. Thanks to the reader who asked about gold, I revisited my charts (below) and Tony Caldaro's gold charts from his Elliott Wave Lives On blog public charts (see sites list at right - thanks again Tony!). It can make a low very soon and very close in price. Or it could test lower - about the lowest it could go would be $950, around the apex of that triangle I fancy and marked on my chart below.

Tony's wave count (which is different from the idea of that triangle, actually) implies that gold's pullback could go down to the $1025 area of the smaller-level wave 4 he marked. But it wouldn't have to. In fact, if the idea of US Treasuries about to drop steeply soon works out (as I posted here a bit earlier this evening), that might help push gold along sooner ... will see.

If it failed $950 by falling under and just not being able to hold that support, then my "bearish" scenario of a deeper pullback would come into play. But frankly, that "C" wave scenario doesn't look very fitting on the charts. Either way, you've got to balance initiating a buy entry now or soon, against the possibility of a deeper test ($950 or lower) - with the thought that it should make an important low and buy entry/re-entry soon, or some time over the next 2-3 months. After this time window, gold should be already on the move upward.

Cycles for gold should also be consulted. I've got the general idea that gold is a buy over the next 2-3 months, and shouldn't go under $950. But I acknowledge that leaves a wide range of possibilities for actual trading gold now! After I can check some more on cycles, I'll add any further comments, though it may take several days.

Just one possibility, if gold needs more time to consolidate, might be that it's only completing a wave "1 of c" per Tony's chart and makes a shallow wedge that completes above the $1047 or $1025 area; rather than all the way to $950. That might be one way of drawing it out while staying over the 200-day moving average or within the channel on my weekly chart. Frankly I could see it either way, although Tony's count doesn't really lend itself to much lower than the $1025 area.

I realize Prechter is calling it bearish based on long-term Fibonacci. But I've been reviewing that Fibonacci relation for over a year. It doesn't have to be the bearish setup he sees. It might result in the deeper pullback scenario. But doesn't have to. In fact, as a pure Fibonacci pattern (and actually as a classic Elliott Wave Fibonacci relationship), all it really did was say that the 1.618 extension of the 1970's high would project to the $1200 area already reached. There's nothing in there that dictates a severe correction. And it can also proceed on to a 1.786 extension, or even a 2.618 or 2.786 extension. Just sayin'!