Today's carnage may require different wave count ideas for equities and some commodities & currencies

Today's carnage in financial markets was surprising to many in various ways. Not so much here, as I've been warning that commodities including gold and oil may have more bearish paths to tread before they're ready to buy. And the yen came through with the move up we've been expecting - retesting that $111.49 long-term Fibonacci level in $XJY (ETF being FXY) and looking positive for a continuation move to new highs. The only other apparent refuges were natural gas, as UNG finally moved positive on the day, and Treasuries as TLT went higher but not to a new swing high (yet). I'm not cynical enough to suggest that any huge players would engineer a drop to help bolster Treasuries; I think the markets are able to make our unconscious fears come to life through our own collective behavior. We'll just have to see if Treasuries bust the wave count, delaying a C wave down via a triangle, or not.

Speaking of changing wave counts, we just may have to as some of the cycle-based ideas prove out instead. One example is the euro - some cycles analysts are suggesting it's already in a C wave down to test as far as $112 potentially. No wonder there was big volume in FXE today. Same thought goes for oil and other commodities; and maybe that would keep Treasuries afloat somewhat longer. But we may have to consider what kind of wave count can also allow for further weakness, with whatever kinds of bounces, into March. With that ultimate low providing a great buying opportunity for higher (equity) market highs into May/August, if Terry Laundry's T Theory with his "T #13" also proves to work out. Another reason to read his daily updates each morning.

For now, we'll start looking in the 1030 to 1055 areas in the SPX as soon as tomorrow. I'm really wondering if Mike Korell's ChartsEdge TCI is showing a low, rather than a high, for tomorrow or Monday. Should be a fun evening for reading everyone's ideas! For now, all I can think of for the low-into-March scenario is, either it's Tony's wave C with similar drastic moves down in commodities and euro ... with higher later this year, and wild card - higher into next year too. Or some type of wave a down, with wave b up to start soon for a great bounce, and then wave c down into March, maybe testing SPX 950 - with a round two of Tony's wave B coming later this year, and his C wave starting in say late August. (And this might fit with Andre Gratian and/or Jim Curry views too - will have to find time to look again at their analyses which we've posted here in recent days too.)

Meantime, enjoy your evening!