Sunday, February 7, 2010

U.S. Treasuries now closer to likely turn up in yields, down in price

While thete hasn't yet been a trigger to trend reverse US Treasuries, sending yields up and bond prices down, we're still expecting it. Below are two of Tony Caldaro's charts from his public charts at his Elliott Wave Lives On site (in list at right - thanks again Tony!) - you can see that $UST moved higher along for gap fill, and has now even moved to the 61.8% retrace level that's common for a wave 2 pullback. Thus makes it closer to the turnaround point where the idea of "Got TBT?" will become more significant.

For KI$$ purposes, we want first to see a move and close under the prior day's low. That can be a trigger for speculative short entries on TLT or other bond/ETF vehicles (or long entries in TBT) with a stop at that prior day's high (or prior day's low in the case of TBT). Or wait for what we'll look for next - followthrough with increased volume. Assuming this all comes together, the yields (and TBT) should push above the multimonth range high, with Treasury 10-year notes and bonds prices dropping to new multimonth lows.

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