First - Today's update from T Theory Foundation: T Theory Calculations, Daily Updates, Charts and Data at http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html - here's his quick summary, click his link to see his chart and trad his discussion of alternate T constrction:
Saturday Noon February 6 2010 Comment for Feb 5 Close: T Theory Forecast remains bullish for the longer term based on the long term AD T #13 but the S&P broke down below the mid-channel support noted in the chart and this is negative near term. Currently I am looking for a new red Small T to eventually get the trend headed up to an early May peak, but don't think we are there for the final low just yet. (Text Corrections coming in an hour)
Yesterday the S&P dropped to the lower green envelope (now S&P 1045) during the early part of Friday's trading, then "mysteriously" rallied to close unchanged. I would like to believe that my envelope theory, based on technical energy conservation principles, was "right on", but the fact is that the concept missed the last top suggests to me that investors have serious concerns that will eventually require a decline in the S&P somewhat below the channel lower bound. Most of the Friday bounce probably was short covering rather than informed buying for the rally projected into early May. So we need to see how next week goes and I assume this rally attempt will fail. the following tutorial helps to explain the forecast in technical terms.
Next, Mike Burk's equities market technical analysis update, at Safe Haven | Technical Market Report, 2/6 at http://www.safehaven.com/article-15731.htm.
An article by Marty Chenard: Safe Haven | Global Debt Problems vs. Economic Progress ..., 1/5 at http://www.safehaven.com/article-15716.htm.
Calafia Beach Pundit's article, Employment: The Bottom Is in Sight -- Seeking Alpha, 2/5 at http://seekingalpha.com/article/186970-employment-the-bottom-is-in-sight.
Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations at http://www.ttheory.com/.
Schaeffer's Monday Morning Outlook: Dow Jones Industrial Average Clings to 10,000, 2/6 at http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/monday+morning+outlook+dow+jones+industrial+average+clings+to+10000/observations.aspx?click=home&ID=97845:
Here's their intro paragraph:
That was a close one! It came down to the wire on Friday, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) managed to rally back nearly 200 points and eke out a close above 10,000 for the week. Growing concerns about European sovereign debt and a less-than-inspiring January nonfarm payrolls report were at least partly to blame for last week's turmoil. Looking ahead to next week, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, examines key technical support and resistance levels for the S&P 500 Index (SPX). He also drills down on several sentiment indicators, and explores the potential for a buying opportunity in the current market environment. Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a look at the December lows indicator, and examines the theory that the market is in for a rough year if the prior December's lows are taken out. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.
Jesse's Café Américain: CFR: When the Fed Stops Monetizing US Sovereign Debt..., 2/5, at http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/02/cfr-when-fed-stops-monetizing-us.html.
Jesse's Café Américain: Fortune Editor Suggests That the US Treasury Will Have to Start Defaulting On Its Bonds, at http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/02/social-security-is-broke-beware-of.html
With the following quick disclaimer (but still a great read if you can devote several minutes):
Disclosure: The title of this blog entry is almost as sensationalistically misleading as the headline of the Fortune news article below.
Thursday - Greece is the Word | Phil’s Stock World - By Phil Davis, 2/4 at http://www.philstockworld.com/2010/02/04/thursday-greece-is-the-word/.
FSO Editorial: "Changed To Neutral Posture" by Carl Swenlin 02/05 - SPX review; we've got some different thoughts from him, but interesting to know what he's thinking (and he does have a relatively steady approach to position trading (versus shorter-term swing trading)): 2/6, at http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2010/0205.html.
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