Sunday, March 21, 2010

Crude oil testing down for support but shouldn't be counted out yet

I've been starting to think that crude oil really could get to $91 before rolling over more seriously. But if you look on my daily chart of $WTIC (below), you can see that it's pulled back from resistance at the mid-channel area of what I've marked as a rather wide-ranging channel it seems to be traveling within currently. Still, as long as crude oil can remain above the $69 level (in $WTIC), then it can retain hope for pushing upward again. I even wouldn't put it past probability that oil will simply test its 50-day moving average (dma) and then make another effort upward. That's why we want to keep an eye on oil at its 50 dma, and/or its lower Bollinger Band, while also watching for the StochRSI indicator to finish its downward move and start upward again.

It might be a short-term ploy to try testing it from the short side, given the StochRSI plunge, to see if oil needs to test lower such as the 200-dma again or the bottom parallel of my hypothetical price channel. Since the 50-dma and 200-dma are both uptrending, it doesn't look very concerning now. I'd only look for deeper (lower) targets if oil broke under the 200-dma (which would also break that trendline). If that happened, it would raise the odds that oil could violate the $69 support area. My monthly chart of $WTIC is also below. It continues to show that if oil violates that support area, then there's some serious downside potential.

But once again, since the monthly StochRSI is also still positive, and given the other factors I mentioned above, it looks more logical to assume that oil is just taking another overbought breather and looking for the retesting of moving average/Bollinger Band levels in order to get support for its next effort to try and reach $91.


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