Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Natural gas just starting to smell better again! Close to a turn up if not already

It's been a while since we looked in on UNG and natural gas, but these charts will confirm why! If you look at the last posts I made on this topic (use the "Natural Gas" label to find them) you will see that I fully expected UNG to make fresh lows, along with $NATGAS making a higher swing low. These events have come to pass. Now what?

Well, I fully expect these events to create a great new swing long buying opportunity in UNG and/or $NATGAS. The big question being, are they ready now? While I cannot be 100% certain about it of course, I think we could possibly be there, and here's why. The RSI and MACD indicators have picked up, and so far UNG has made a higher low on the daily chart. The trading volumes have picked up too. I only wish the trading volumes showed bigger green bars! So that's my one cautionary note. For that matter, serious swing and position investors will want to see the 200-day moving average level out when price firms up too.

On the weekly charts, below, of both UNG and $NATGAS, the "CCI" indicator suggest that a cyclic low is either complete or soon to complete. And MACD on the $NATGAS weekly is testing around the zero line. (MACD on the daily UNG chart above has even seen its indicator cross up, although it remains below its own zero line.) All these things suggest that the turn is in progress. Cannot guarantee that one more new low won't be poked ... but I think it is time to start ringing the bell for natural gas traders to start looking for a good turn.


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