The stock market you really can't be short for long - and you hate to be long, in short!

What a market! as I tweeted today! It threatened to lose support around 1192 which is simply one of our little "string" numbers as I like to refer to numbers ending in 2 and 7, because the market tends to jump from them like little ladder steps. Then after touching 1190, came back to 1192, then above it and zoomed back to 1197. Despite the overly hot sentiment as I pointed out in my post last night, this is a market that traders can hardly be short for any length of time, not more than 30 or 60 minutes it seems. Even though with the TRIN looking a little on the overbought side, and the CPCE and other sentiment indicators running hot, traders are more nervous about being long!

Here's a quick look at Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave sizing up of where the S&P 500 is right now. You can always find his site in the list at right, along with his site feed where you can keep up with his daily updates. I'm going to quote from part of his update this evening because it's something you will want to note, if you are following his wave counting:

"We took a closer look at the short term charts today. From where we have labeled Minor wave 4 at SPX 1161 on March 26th the market has been advancing in another five wave sequence. We have marked Minute waves one and two just before the end of March. Minute wave three has been underway since then. This would suggest that the SPX should challenge the OEW 1222 pivot before we get a significant pullback, possibily Intermediate wave two. The pullback from yesterdays' high at SPX 1199 to this mornings low at 1189 was the shortest of the now eight pullbacks since this uptrend began in early February."

If Tony's count works out then once this wave "tops out" it "should" result in a pullback testing in the area of 1162-1167, as best I can determine (okay, that's my interpretation and I won't speak for Tony). And below, you can see Tony's hourly chart of the SPX which you can always find using his public chart link in any post on his webpage (thanks again, Tony!). It's true that Andre Gratian is talking about the 1200 level, and if you're able to keep up with Terry Laundry's T Theory daily updates (using Terry's T Theory site in the list at right) then you also have other input for how to size up where this market's heading. All I can say is, maybe we see 1200 and maybe we see 1222. But I'm also aware of the ChartsEdge work which makes me wonder if we're at the edge of some cycle crest too. There is negative divergence on the hourly chart. So, while an overbought market can remain overbought, I'm trying to pick my way very, very cautiously at this stage. A real break of today's low around 1190 would most likely take my "long chips" off the table (so to speak - I'm talking about the SPX index in general, not the semiconductors which I'm not tracking at the moment) and have me testing trading from the short side until the market proves otherwise.

Conversely - if the market respects today's lows and wants to test higher to hit 1200 or Tony's 1222, I'll go with that instead to look for what might turn out to be a better turning point. I'm still okay conceptually with a high around late May but that's a little over a month away and we may have some trading in the meantime for those who like to be nimble.