Euro bounced from monthly trendline - so far

The euro has made a good bounce from last week's low which tested a trendline on my old euro monthly chart. This chart is so old, I'm a little embarrassed by some of the notations on it. Yet I'm not going to abandon the possibility that my basic analysis which it shows, may prove out. That tail spike actually poked slightly under that trendline support, as well as the lower Bollinger Band on this monthly chart. Now what? Well, it can go higher before hitting significant resistance from the Bollinger Band midline. So some additional rebound looks possible.

On the other hand, what's the bigger picture? The moving averages might be going into a negative bow tie, and my basic idea had been this would be a "c" down of a large second-wave pullback, which could take the euro to 112 ($XEU, or virtually the same in the ETF called FXE). Although my idea of a large triangle shape for a "b" wave didn't pan out, the most recent swing highs can have been a large "b" wave high using a different structure. From a slow-moving swing trade perspective, the trading game will be to see if the euro gets turned back by resistance levels from prior broken support and moving averages, thus rolling over to test toward 112. I know this isn't guaranteed, and the euro could turn the recent lows into a double bottom instead.

But my current sense is that the Fibonacci retracement level associated with 112 may be an area the euro will have to test before it becomes a true buy-and-hold long position again. So no matter how you trade shorter-term positions, keep this more bearish potential in mind.